Publications

The U.S. aviation system makes extensive use of national operational Doppler weather radar networks. These are critical for the detection and forecasting of thunderstorms and other hazardous weather phenomena, and they provide dense, continuously updated measurements of precipitation and wind fields as inputs to high-resolution numerical weather prediction models. This article describes recent Lincoln Laboratory activities that significantly enhance the operational effectiveness of the nation's Doppler weather radar networks. An open radar controller and digital signal processor has been developed for the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), which provides safety-critical low-altitude wind-shear warnings at large airports. This processor utilizes a small computer cluster architecture and standards-based software to realize high throughput and expansion capability. Innovative signal processing algorithms enabled by the new processor significantly improve the quality of the precipitation and wind measurements provided by TDWR. In a parallel effort, the Laboratory is working with engineers in the National Weather Service to augment the national NEXRAD Doppler weather radar network's algorithm suite. Laboratory staff develop and test enhancements directed at the aviation weather problem. Then they provide plug-and-play software to the NEXRAD second-level engineering support organization. This effort has substantially improved the operational value of NEXRAD data for the aviation system. Finally, we discuss nascent efforts to define a future multifunction radar network using an active-array architecture, which could realize the capabilities of today's multiple weather and air traffic control radar networks.

Explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with the National Airspace System (NAS) structure is needed to improve the development and execution of operationally effective weather impact mitigation plans and has become increasingly important due to NAS congestion and associated increases in delay. This article considers several contemporary weather-air traffic management (ATM) integration applications: the use of probabilistic forecasts of visibility at San Francisco, the Route Availability Planning Tool to facilitate departures from the New York airports during thunderstorms, the estimation of en route capacity in convective weather, and the application of mixed-integer optimization techniques to air traffic management when the en route and terminal capacities are varying with time because of convective weather impacts. Our operational experience at San Francisco and New York coupled with very promising initial results of traffic flow optimizations suggests that weather-ATM integrated systems warrant significant research and development investment. However, they will need to be refined through rapid prototyping at facilities with supportive operational users.

This paper discusses inter-related studies and development activities that address the significant challenges of implementing Air Traffic Management initiatives in airspace impacted by thunderstorms. We briefly describe current thrusts that will improve the quality and precision of thunderstorm forecasts, work in progress to convert these forecasts into estimates of future airspace capacity, and an initiative to develop a robust ATM optimization model based on future capacity estimates with associated uncertainty bounds. We conclude with a discussion of the thunderstorm ATM problem in the context of future advanced airspace management concepts.

This paper is a concept study for possible future utilization of active electronically scanned radars to provide weather and aircraft surveillance functions in U.S. airspace. If critical technology costs decrease sufficiently, multi-function phased array radars might prove to be a cost effective alternative to current surveillance radars, since the number of required radars would be reduced, and maintenance and logistics infrastructure would be consolidated. A radar configuration that provides terminal-area and long-range aircraft surveillance and weather measurement capability is described and a radar network design that replicates or exceeds current airspace coverage is presented. Key technology issues are examined, including transmit-receive elements, overlapped sub-arrays, the digital beamformer, and weather and aircraft post-processing algorithms. We conclude by discussing implications relative to future national weather and non-cooperative aircraft target surveillance needs. The U.S. Government currently operates four separate ground based surveillance radar networks supporting public and aviation-specific weather warnings and advisories, and primary or "skin paint" aircraft surveillance. The separate networks are: (i) The 10-cm wavelength NEXRAD or WSR88-D (Serafin and Wilson, 2000) national-scale weather radar network. This is managed jointly by the National Weather Service (NWS), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the Department of Defense (DoD). (ii) The 5-cm wavelength Terminal Doppler Weather Radars (TDWR) (Evans and Turnbull, 1989) deployed at large airports to detect low-altitude wind-shear phenomena. (iii) The 10-cm wavelength Airport Surveillance Radars (ASR-9 and ASR-11) (Taylor and Brunins, 1985) providing terminal area primary aircraft surveillance and vertically averaged precipitation reflectivity measurements. (iv) The 30-cm wavelength Air Route Surveillance Radars (ARSR-1, 2, 3 and 4) (Weber, 2005) that provide national-scale primary aircraft surveillance. The latter three networks are managed primarily by the FAA, although the DoD operates a limited number of ASRs and has partial responsibility for maintenance of the ARSR network. In total there are 513 of these radars in the contiguous United States (CONUS), Alaska, and Hawaii. The agencies that maintain these radars conduct various "life extension" activities that are projected to extend their operational life to approximately 2020. At this time, there are no defined programs to acquire replacement radars. The NWS and FAA have recently begun exploratory research on the capabilities and technology issues related to the use of multi-function phased array radar (MPAR) as a possible replacement approach. A key concept is that the MPAR network could provide both weather and primary aircraft surveillance, thereby reducing the total number of ground-based radars. In addition, MPAR surveillance capabilities would likely exceed those of current operational radars, for example, by providing more frequent weather volume scans and by providing vertical resolution and height estimates for primary aircraft targets. Table 1 summarizes the capabilities of current U.S. surveillance radars. These are approximations and do not fully capture variations in capability as a function, for example, of range or operating mode. A key observation is that significant variation in update rates between the aircraft and weather surveillance functions are currently achieved by using fundamentally different antenna patterns--low-gain vertical "fan beams" for aircraft surveillance that are scanned in azimuth only, versus high-gain weather radar "pencil beams" that are scanned volumetrically at much lower update rates. Note also that, if expressed in consistent units, the power-aperture products of the weather radars significantly exceed those of the ASRs and ARSRs. In the next section, we present a concept design for MPAR and demonstrate that it can simultaneously provide the measurement capabilities summarized in Table 1. In Section 3 we present an MPAR network concept that duplicates the airspace coverage provided by the current multiple radar networks. Section 4 discusses technology issues and associated cost considerations. We conclude in Section 5 by discussing implications relative to future national weather and non-cooperative aircraft target surveillance needs.

A radar data quality control (QC) system is being developed for the real-time, continuously updateable NOWCAST system at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL-NOWCAST) in Monterey, California. NRL has developed its own new radar QC algorithms, and is also working with the MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT LL), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the National Severe Storms Laboratory and the Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies at the University of Oklahoma (NSSL-OU) to obtain, adapt, integrate, test and install various types of recently-developed radar QC algorithms for use with NRL-NOWCAST. These algorithms work with volume scans of full-resolution Doppler radar data. Radar data QC can be divided into two categories: echo classification (EC) and calibration. New EC algorithms have recently demonstrated substantial success at separating the radar echoes of precipitation from other echo types, such as noise, normal propagation (NP) and anomalous propagation (AP) ground clutter, sea clutter, insects/clear-air, birds, second-trip echoes, and constant power function (CPF) artifacts. Radar data calibration methods assess the accuracy of both the data values and data coordinates. One calibration issue is aliased radial velocity data from precipitation and insect/clear-air returns, which if correctly de-aliased, afford the opportunity to estimate winds. Another calibration issue of concern to NRL is the processing of radar data from mobile platforms, such as US Navy ships. This processing requires corrections to the radial velocity data and the data-coordinates for the motion of the platform, as well as corrections for the altitude of the data coordinates due to the AP of the radar beam that frequently occurs within surface and evaporation ducts of the marine atmosphere. The goal of this work is to test the performance of the most current and promising radar data QC algorithms on archived data sets, both from ground- and sea-based radars, in order to determine the optimal combination for future real-time use within NRL-NOWCAST. NRL-NOWCAST currently ingests full-resolution Doppler radar data from both the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network and the US Department of Defense (DoD) Supplemental Weather Radar (SWR) at the Naval Air Station (NAS) in Fallon, NV. Various products are then created from these data for NRL-NOWCAST display. The radar data are also ingested into the COAMPS-0S (R) (Geiszler et al. 2004) data assimilation system at NRL. Figure 1 shows a flow chart that summarizes the processing stages and uses of radar data at NRL. Figure 2 shows an example of the NRL-NOWCAST demonstration site currently set up at Fallon, where the specific products displayed are only a few from a large list that may be chosen by the forecasters at the NAS. This paper presents a brief overview of the concepts behind the various EC and radial velocity de-aliasing algorithms under consideration. Test results from an NRL algorithm-testing platform will also be presented along with some previously published test results from the authors. Additional test results from the platform will be presented at the conference. Methods to address data-value and data coordinate calibration problems associated with Doppler radars onboard US Navy ships are currently being studied; a discussion on future work in this area will be outlined.

Thunderstorm activity and associated low-altitude wind shear constitute a significant safety hazard to aviation, particularly during operations near airport terminals where aircraft altitude is low and flight routes are constrained. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has procured several dedicated meteorological sensors (Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), Network Expansion Low Level Wind Shear Alert System (LLWAS) at major airports to enhance the safety and efficiency of operations during convective weather. A hardware and software modification to existing Airport Surveillance Radars (ASR-9)-the Weather Systems Processor (WSP)-will provide similar capabilities at much lower cost, thus allowing the FAA to extend its protection envelope to medium density airports and airports where thunderstorm activity is less frequent. Following successful operation demonstrations of a prototype ASR-WSP, the FAA has procured approximately 35 WSP's for nationwide deployment. Lincoln Laboratory was responsible for development of all data processing algorithms, which were provided as Government Furnished Equipment (GFE), to be implemented by the full-scale development (FSD) contractor without modification. This report defines the operations that are used to produce images of atmospheric reflectivity, Doppler velocity and data quality that are used by WSP's meteorological product algorithms to generate automated information on hazardous wind shear and other phenomena. Principle requirements are suppression of interference (e.g. ground clutter, moving points targets, meteorological and ground echoes originating from beyond the radar's unambiguous range), generation of meteorologically relevant images and estimates of data quality. Hereafter, these operations will be referred to as "signal processing" and the resulting images as "base data."

This paper has described work underway to enhance the TDWRs capability to provide wind shear detection services in challenging conditions, and to provide a flexible platform with COTS hardware that would support future improvements. A Radar Data Acquisition (RDA) system retrofit will upgrade the transmitter, receiver and digital signal processing subsystems of the radar to improve the quality of the reflectivity and Doppler imagery generated by the system and to extend its instrumented range. Algorithms have been described for achieving improved rejection of ground clutter and range-folded weather echoes, and reduction of Doppler velocity aliasing. An open COTS-based processing architecture was presented for the TDWR RDA retrofit, and a test program was outlined that is commencing in Oklahoma in the spring of 2002.

Conflicts between birds and commercial aircraft are a noteworthy problem at both large and small airports [Cleary, 1999]. The risk factor for United States airports continues to increase due to the steady rise in take-off/landings and bird populations. There is a significant bird strike problem in the terminal area as shown by the incidents reported in the National Bird Strike Database [Cleary and Dolbeer, 1999]. The focus of bird strike mitigation in the past has centered primarily on wildlife management techniques. Recently, an Avian Hazard Advisory System (AHAS) has been developed to reduce the risks of bird strikes to military operations [Kelly, 1999]. This system uses a mosaic of data obtained from the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD). This sensor serves as an excellent tool for enroute bird advisories due to the radar coverage provided across the majority of the United States. However, its utility in the airport terminal environment is limited due to the slow update rate and the fact that the distance of most NEXRADs from the airport results in beam heights that are too high to detect low-altitude birds over the airport. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) operates two radar systems – the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), and the Airport Surveillance Radar (ASR-9) -- that could be used to help monitor bird activity at an airport in order to: 1. Provide continuously updated information on locations and approximate numbers of birds in flocks roosting or feeding on or near an airfield; 2. Generate real-time warnings of bird activity for dissemination to pilots of landing or departing aircraft by air traffic controllers or by direct data link. The TDWR provides wind shear warnings in the terminal area to enhance safety, while the ASR-9’s primary function is air traffic control. Both of these systems have been shown to detect biological echoes as well. Characteristics of the two radar systems have been examined and compared to determine capabilities for bird detection. Amongst other favorable factors, the high update rate and on-airport locale makes the ASR-9 a highly desirable platform for a bird detection and warning system for the terminal area. Data from an ASR-9 at Austin TX (AUS) equipped with a Weather Systems Processor (WSP) have been analyzed to assess the ASR-9's capability to detect and monitor bird activity. The WSP add-on provides a variety of radar base data products similar to those that would be available on all ASR-9s as part of an ASR-9 Service Life Extension Program (SLEP) currently underway. The Austin airport area is subject to large flocks of wintering migratory birds as well as a resident population of bats in close proximity to the airport. Radar data, visual observations and bird strike information during periods of active bird/bat movements have been collected for this study. An automated processing algorithm called the Terminal Avian Hazard Advisory System (TAHAS) is being developed to detect and track roosting and migratory birds using ASR-9 data. A key challenge will be the ability to discriminate biological from non-biological targets based on variables such as vertical continuity, variance or spectral width, and horizontal velocity distribution.

Aviation weather refers to any type of weather that can affect the operation of an aircraft – anything from a brief delay in departure to a catastrophic accident during flight. Wind shear and events associated with convective weather were recognized as an aviation hazard long before Dr. Theodore Fujita began publishing his now-famous treatises. On July 28, 1943, American Airlines Flight 63 from Cleveland, Ohio, USA to Nashville, Tennessee crashed after the pilot lost control of the Douglas DC3. The pilots and numerous passengers were fatally injured. The aircraft was destroyed by impact and post crash fire. The weather report at the time included warnings for storms, heavy rain, lightning and severe turbulence. The Civil Aeronautics Board found that the probable cause was a loss of control of the aircraft due to unusually severe turbulence and violent downdraft caused by a thunderstorm. In the ten-year period from 1987 through 1996, 24% of all U.S. accidents were judged to be "weather related". For the twenty-year period 1976 to 1996 fully 43% of U.S. accidents were judged to have involved wind or wind shear, and 2.3 % thunderstorm, although the two data elements are not mutually exclusive. In the U.S., approximately 82% of accidents are general aviation; the rest are air carriers and commuters of various types. When general aviation accidents are negated, and only air carriers are considered, wind and wind shear issues account for 9.5% of accidents. The Weather Systems Processor (WSP) has been developed to reduce the impact of severe weather conditions on air traffic by providing information concerning weather conditions in the airport terminal environment. WSP provides warnings to air traffic controllers and supervisors of hazardous wind shear and microburst events in the terminal area, forecasts the arrival of gust fronts, and tracks thunderstorms, providing a complete picture of current and future terminal area hazardous weather conditions that may impact runway and airport usage. Common weather situation awareness allows Terminal Approach, Tower Controllers and other traffic management personnel to jointly plan with confidence and safely manage more arrivals and departures with less delay. Knowledge of the location, severity and movement of hazardous weather allows dynamic adjustments to be made in routing aircraft to runways, approach and departure corridors, terminal arrival and departure transition areas (i.e. gate-posts) and other air routes.

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) operates over 400 C- to L-band surveillance radars-Airport Surveillance Radars (ASRs), Air Route Surveillance Radars (ARSRs) and Terminal Doppler Weather Radars (TDWRs). Current generation terminal and en route aircraft surveillance radars (ASR-9, ASR-11 and ARSR-4) feature dedicated digital processing channels that measure and display precipitation reflectivity. Some of these "weather channels" will be upgraded to measure Doppler velocity, supporting, for example, wind shear detection at air terminals. The Terminal Doppler Weather Radar is a high quality dedicated meteorological surveillance radar deployed near many of the larger airports in the U.S. In this paper we consider how these radars could complement the WSR-88D network in providing a variety of meteorological services to the U.S. public. Potential benefits from a combined radar network would accrue from significantly increased radar density and the more rapid temporal updates of the FAA radars. Convective weather monitoring and forecasting, hydrological measurements and services to aviation are examples of areas where significant improvements could be expected. Section 2 reviews the status of the FAA radars their parameters, locations and capabilities. We also note the progress of various upgrade programs that will increase their weather surveillance capabilities substantially. In Section 3, we discuss benefits that would result from their usage in conjunction with the WSR-88D network. Finally, we discuss technological developments that will facilitate realization of these benefits.