Publications

Under the Terminal Flight Data Manager program, new operational improvements are envisioned at a number of large airports. One operational improvement manifests through the Airport Resource Management tool, which seeks to balance departure demand at runways. Another related operational improvement is runway balancing, which is expected to provide greater flexibility in tactical runway assignments. Both improvements are expected to reduce surface delays for departing aircraft. This report provides a study into the potential delay-reduction benefits of both capabilities at three case-study airports (DFW, LAX, and MCO). Through a series of simulation studies, it is found that the benefits associated with each operational improvement are closely linked to departure demand and imbalances in demand across filed aircraft departure procedures. So, while large delay-reduction benefits are expected at LAX--which exhibits both large demand and departure imbalances--smaller benefits are expected at DFW where departure operations are already well-balanced. Meanwhile at MCO, the operational improvements are not expected to reduce delays due to limited departure demand at the airport.

This report provides an assessment of the applicability of Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) to perform preliminary risk-based modeling of complex NextGen concepts, based on the observed application of STPA to Interval Management-Spacing (IM-S) as a case study. The report also considers the potential use of STPA as a formal tool for safety analysis at the Federal Aviation Administration. This report's sources include a report documenting the application of STPA performed by the MIT Systems Engineering Research Lab (SERL), previous reports, and input from other staff and aviation subject-matter experts.

This report provides a brief review of major risk-based modeling (RBM) approaches, with particular emphasis on how these tools can be applied during initial Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) concept development and how their use can be validated. Effective safety analysis should play a role even during a new system's concept definition and development. Elements of NextGen are currently progressing through these early phases. NextGen will increasingly rely on integrating multiple systems and information together to enable improved efficiency, safety, and reduced environmental impact. Ensuring that such complex interconnected systems are developed to meet safety goals requires corresponding advances in RBM and safety assessment approaches. This report does not cover the more detailed safety analyses that must be applied to mature system concepts. Rather, the focus is on approaches for hazard identification, scoping, and coarse risk estimation for systems in the early conceptual development stage, when details on the design and operation of the system have yet to be resolved. Risk models applied is this constrained context cannot be expected to provide the same complete, quantitative results as they do for mature systems. Following a review of prior models, this report continues with recommendations for RBM development, application, validation, and coordination between NextGen efforts. Also, a discussion on safety and concept development is provided.