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The FAA Terminal Convective Weather Forecast product: scale separation filter optimization
July 12, 1999
Conference Paper
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29th Int. Conf. on Radar Meteorology, 12-16 July 1999.
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Summary
A large percentage of serious air traffic delay at major airports in the warm season is caused by convective weather. The FAA Convective Weather Product Development team (PDT) has developed a Terminal Convective Weather Forecast product (TCWF) that can account for short-term (out to 60 min) systematic growth and decay of thunderstorms. The team began work three years ago by evaluating air traffic user needs and requirements. We found that users were willing to trade off forecast accuracy for longer lead times, especially for air traffic management plans that were easy to implement or that incurred low risk (Forman, et al., 1999). The PDT was able to develop an operationally useful forecast product that has been demonstrated in Dallas, TX since March, 1998 (Hallowell, et al., 1999). Further improvements have been made, and testing is now taking place at both Dallas and Orlando, FL. This paper summarizes the basic algorithm methodology and presents quantitative results on optimization of the scale separation filter, which is an integral aspect of the forecast algorithm.
Summary
A large percentage of serious air traffic delay at major airports in the warm season is caused by convective weather. The FAA Convective Weather Product Development team (PDT) has developed a Terminal Convective Weather Forecast product (TCWF) that can account for short-term (out to 60 min) systematic growth and decay...
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A case study of mid-level turbulence outside regions of active convection
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
8th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology (ARAM), 10-15 January 1999.
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Historically, the principal focus of research on clear-air turbulence of concern to aircraft has been on jet stream and mountain (orographic) induced turbulence. Relatively little research has focused on the turbulence hazard outside of, but in the vicinity of, convective storms, known as Convective Induced Turbulence (CIN). In this paper, we present our analysis requested by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) of the meteorological conditions leading to severe turbulence and near loss of flight control of a commercial passenger jet and find that they fall into the CIN category. On 12 May 1997, at approximately 1929 UT, an American Airlines Airbus A300 en route from Boston, MA to Miami, FL encountered severe turbulence off the coast of West Palm Beach, FL. Near the time of the incident the crew had been directed to hold at 16,000 ft because of weather and traffic near Miami International. While approaching the holding position, the aircraft experienced severe turbulence and dropped over 3000 vertical feet in 30 seconds. A detailed postevent analysis by the NTSB failed to find any causal evidence for the turbulence and no single sensor, data set, or pilot report examined by the NTSB provided justification for the magnitude of the event. Our independent analysis of the incident was conducted primarily using recorded Miami WSR-88D base data. The analysis revealed a small-scale vertical shear zone may have emanated from a thunderstorm upstream of the Airbus. Animated cross-sectional images also suggested that a rotor may have propagated with the mean wind and intersected the flight path at the time the severe turbulence was reported. This paper will focus on meteorological conditions that led to the upset and provide evidence for several possible causes of the turbulence.
Summary
Historically, the principal focus of research on clear-air turbulence of concern to aircraft has been on jet stream and mountain (orographic) induced turbulence. Relatively little research has focused on the turbulence hazard outside of, but in the vicinity of, convective storms, known as Convective Induced Turbulence (CIN). In this paper...
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The thunderstorm penetration/deviation decision in the terminal area
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
8th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, ARAM, 10-15 January 1999.
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During thunderstorm periods, terminal air traffic planners make a number of key decisions. They decide when to close and re-open arrival fixes, departure fixes, and runways; they anticipate and execute changes in runway configuration; they negotiate routing and flow rate decisions with Air Route Traffic Control Center (ART CC) traffic managers; and they set the airport acceptance rate. In making each of these decisions, the traffic planner looks at a weather radar display and makes an educated guess at answering the two following questions: - What will the weather be like in the airspace and time period in question? - Will the pilots be able and willing to fly through that airspace during that time? The same two questions will be important for advanced terminal automation systems. One key element of air traffic automation systems such as the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) is the calculation of candidate trajectories for each aircraft for the time period of automation control. To make this calculation, the automation software must know which routes will be usable during the control period. The first of the two fundamental questions is being addressed by the convective weather Product Development Team (PDT) of the FAA's Aviation Weather Research program. (Wolfson, 1997; Wolfson, 1999; Hallowell, 1999; Forman, 1999; Evans, 1997) The second fundamental question is the subject of the work reported here. The state of the art answer to the second question is a widely quoted air traffic control rule-of-thumb which says that pilots generally do not penetrate precipitation that is NWS VIP level 3 (i.e. 41 dBZ) or higher. That is not to say that air traffic controllers always vector aircraft around level 3+ cells but rather that they begin to anticipate pilot requests for deviations when the weather approaches level 3. A suite of new weather sensors have become available that provide much more comprehensive information on convective weather features than was available in the past. Additionally, flight-related data such as preceding pilot behavior and whether a flight is running late are easier to obtain than in the past. In this study we develop an objective quantitative assessment of which weather and flight-related variables best explain pilot deviation decision-making.
Summary
During thunderstorm periods, terminal air traffic planners make a number of key decisions. They decide when to close and re-open arrival fixes, departure fixes, and runways; they anticipate and execute changes in runway configuration; they negotiate routing and flow rate decisions with Air Route Traffic Control Center (ART CC) traffic...
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Achieving higher integrity in NEXRAD products through multi-sensor integration
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
8th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology (ARAM), 10-15 January 1999.
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Summary
The initial operational concept for the NEXRAD focused on support for the operational forecaster based on longstanding practice in use of weather radars by the National Weather Service (NWS) and Air Force as well as difficulties in developing reliable, fully automated phenomena detection algorithms [Crum, 1998]. By contrast, achieving high integrity in the narrow band products provided by NEXRAD to external users has received much less attention in the NEXRAD product development process thus far. However, other government weather information systems [especially the FAA's Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) and the Weather and Radar Processor (WARP)] and non-meteorologist external users of the NEXRAD products through the NEXRAD Information Distribution System (NIDS) vendors need very high integrity NEXRAD products. In the NWS context, the direct utilization of NEXRAD products into numerical weather prediction models will also create much more stringent requirements for integrity of the NEXRAD base data. Achieving very high integrity through automated analysis of only the data from a single NEXRAD is very difficult. In this paper, we consider the use of a much wider range of contextual information to create high integrity external user products. For instance, with the NEXRAD Open RPG and connectivity to AWIPS and ITWS, a system architecture will exist that will facilitate the implementation of NEXRAD product quality control algorithms that utilize information from other sensors. In the following sections, we present some examples of how information from various other sources might be used to improve the quality of the data from a NEXRAD. We first show an example of how data from adjacent NEXRADs can be used to help edit out the anomalous propagation (AP) ground clutter which currently is corrupting a number of the NEXRAD reflectivity products intended for air traffic controller use. In cases where the NEXRAD is near a major metropolitan area, data from the FAA's TDWR can be used to improve the integrity of the NEXRAD reflectivity products used for hydrology. Similarly, gridded wind fields estimated from multiple Doppler analyses, aircraft reports, and numerical models can be used to help address difficult challenges in Doppler ambiguity resolution for a single NEXRAD radar. The paper concludes with suggestions for near term demonstration and evaluation of multi sensor approaches to achieving high integrity in the NEXRAD products.
Summary
The initial operational concept for the NEXRAD focused on support for the operational forecaster based on longstanding practice in use of weather radars by the National Weather Service (NWS) and Air Force as well as difficulties in developing reliable, fully automated phenomena detection algorithms [Crum, 1998]. By contrast, achieving high...
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A refinement of thunderstorm climatology for the terminal radar control airspace
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
8th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, ARAM, 10-15 January 1999.
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Summary
Convective storms pose a significant threat to aviation safety, and often result in substantial fl ight delays for the commercial aviation industry. The overall impact of these storms is typically based on thunderstorm climatologies and are often one of the factors used in decisions by the US government regarding the operational benefits and allocation of its weather surveillance resources. These climatologies are based on the average number of days that a thunderstorm is observed at a particular airport. Due to the nature of the criteria used to identify a thunderstorm, the climatological statistics often do not accurately represent the number of thunderstorms that impact an airport's operations. The present study utilizes data from the Dallas Ft. Worth International Airport (DFW) and the Orlando International Airport (MCO) to identify deficiencies in the climatological data as it applies to aviation applications. A spatially representative climatology is presented as a more accurate climatology for use in evaluating the impact of convection on an airport's operations. This type of climatological estimate of thunderstorm frequency significantly increases the estimated number of thunderstorms impacting an airport and their associated costs.
Summary
Convective storms pose a significant threat to aviation safety, and often result in substantial fl ight delays for the commercial aviation industry. The overall impact of these storms is typically based on thunderstorm climatologies and are often one of the factors used in decisions by the US government regarding the...
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Addressing the weather delay problems of the New York City airports with the Integrated Terminal Weather System
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
8th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, 10-15 1999.
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The three major New York City (NYC) air carrier airports (Kennedy, LaGuardia, Newark) currently experience high delays due to adverse terminal weather, both in an absolute sense and relative to other major airport complexes. Significantly expanding the NYC airports (e.g., by adding new runways) to reduce delays is not feasible. One alternative is to provide aviation weather decision support systems to air traffic, airline, and airport operations personnel to help them operate more safely and effectively with the existing runway/taxiway complexes. Under an innovative partnership between the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Lincoln Laboratory has installed and is currently operating a functional prototype Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) to conduct research on improving the safety and efficiency of operations at the NYC airports during adverse weather. The New York terminal area provides a stringent test of the ITWS ability to safely reduce delays due to both the meteorology and the operational usage challenges not found at the earlier ITWS test locations of Orlando, Memphis, and Dallas. In this paper, we describe key features of the New York terminal environment and the ITWS prototype, the initial experience in addressing the meteorological and operational usage challenges of the New York terminal area, and describe plans for the coming years.
Summary
The three major New York City (NYC) air carrier airports (Kennedy, LaGuardia, Newark) currently experience high delays due to adverse terminal weather, both in an absolute sense and relative to other major airport complexes. Significantly expanding the NYC airports (e.g., by adding new runways) to reduce delays is not feasible...
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Aviation user needs for convective weather forecasts
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
8th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology (ARAM), 10-15 January 1999.
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The prediction of convective weather is very important to aviation, since almost half of the serious delay at major airports in the warm season is caused by thunderstorms. The need for accurate 0-6 hr forecasts for NAS users has been the subject of extensive publications, forums, and advisory committees in the aviation weather community over the last several years (Wolfson, et al; 1997). The Convective Weather Product Development Team (PDT), a core team of scientists and engineers from NCAR, NSSL, and MIT LL, was formed in 1996 as part of the reorganization of the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program. The team is developing convective weather forecast algorithms that produce operationally useful products for both the terminal area and enroute airspace. The products are designed to meet specific users' air traffic planning and safety needs. Before major algorithm development began, PDT members visited terminal and enroute Air Traffic (AT) personnel and airline dispatchers to understand the forecast products that were currently available to them and their needs for a near future product. Also, in order to reach the pilot community, a pilot survey about existing convective weather information and how to improve it, was created and distributed at the OshKosh Fly-In in August of 1997. This needs assessment took advantage of interviewees that had extensively used state-of-the-art weather information products (ITWS) in an operational setting for years. Their requirements, based on personal experiences with operational products during convective weather events, were less stringent than those reported in the recent requirements document pertaining to ARTCC TMUs (Browne, et al; 1999). The results of these investigations were used in the creation of the DFW Terminal Convective Weather Forecast (TCWF) product and the National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF) products that were demonstrated throughout the summer of 1998 (Hallowell, et al; 1999; Mueller, et al; 1999). These demonstrations also provided additional insight into user needs. In this paper we describe Air Traffic users and their specific responsibilities. We then summarize AT and airline needs based on interviews conducted in 1997 and 1998. Information on pilots' needs for convective weather information is presented at the end.
Summary
The prediction of convective weather is very important to aviation, since almost half of the serious delay at major airports in the warm season is caused by thunderstorms. The need for accurate 0-6 hr forecasts for NAS users has been the subject of extensive publications, forums, and advisory committees in...
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Nowcasting requirements for the aircraft vortex spacing system (AVOSS)
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
8th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, 10-15 Jan. 1999, pp. 340-344.
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Aircraft wake vortices are counter-rotating tubes of air that are generated from aircraft as a consequence of the lift on the aircraft. The safety concern of wake vortices, particularly when lighter aircraft are following heavy planes, has caused the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to enact minimum separation requirements during the arrival phase of flight. These separation standards are imposed at the arrival threshold during Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) and are a significant constraint on arrival capacity at the largest U.S. airports. Any movement toward increasing air traffic efficiency, such as concepts toward free-flight, must address increasing runway capacity if they are to be fully effective. Decades of past wake vortex measurements clearly show that current wake vortex separations are overconservative in many weather conditions, and that adapting the separations to the current weather state could safely reduce these separations...This paper describes the known meteorological influences on vortex behavior and gives an overview of AVOSS. Airport climatology is studied to discuss the prevalence of conditions that are conducive to capacity increases with AVOSS technology. Finally, additional constraints on AVOSS nowcasts are discussed.
Summary
Aircraft wake vortices are counter-rotating tubes of air that are generated from aircraft as a consequence of the lift on the aircraft. The safety concern of wake vortices, particularly when lighter aircraft are following heavy planes, has caused the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to enact minimum separation requirements during the...
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Optimizing the ITWS algorithm designed to remove anomalous propagation ground clutter from the ASR-9 precipitation product
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
8th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, ARAM, 10-15 January 1999.
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A key product within the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) Initial Operating Capability (IOC) product suite removes anomalous propagation (AP) ground clutter from the ASR-9 precipitation product. This has been identified as a critical component of ITWS due to the frequent occurrence of AP when storms or outflows move over an ASR-9. Editing is accomplished by comparing the raw ASR-9 weather data to composite maps generated by the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) and the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR). An editing template, containing regions of AP, is created based on the ASR-9 data collected at the middle of the composite volume scan to minimize the difference in update rates. The template is used to edit the ASR-9 scan immediately after the composite map and all subsequent scans until a new composite map is received. This algorithm has been shown to perform quite well, especially if the weather and AP returns are not co-located. During the 1994 Demonstration and Validation Operational Test and Evaluation in Memphis (MEM) and Orlando (MCO), the probability of editing AP (PEAP) in the absence of weather was 0.97 for level 2 and greater returns (Klingle-Wilson, 1995). The probability of editing weather (PEW) for those cases with weather only was quite low, i.e., 0.01. In order to minimize the removal of weather returns in those cases where the AP and weather are located in close proximity, the editing thresholds are quite conservative. This is reflected by the 1994 results which show a PEAP of 0.81 and a PEW of 0.02 for this class of event. Besides the conservative thresholds, another area of concern is the fact that the AP regions can expand or increase in intensity after the AP editing template is created. This rapid variation frequently occurs with convectively generated AP and can cause the performance of the algorithm to decrease with time until a new template is created. In this study, we will examine the algorithm failure mechanisms in detail to identify possible site-adaptable parameter changes that can be used to improve the performance for the mixed weather/AP events. This is especially germane since the parameter set was not re-evaluated after the TDWR composite map was incorporated in 1995. In the critical region over the airport during hazardous weather conditions, this radar updates more frequently than the NEXRAD. Since the parameters were designed to account for the NEXRAD volume update rate, they are probably too conservative for the current algorithm (which uses both composite maps).
Summary
A key product within the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) Initial Operating Capability (IOC) product suite removes anomalous propagation (AP) ground clutter from the ASR-9 precipitation product. This has been identified as a critical component of ITWS due to the frequent occurrence of AP when storms or outflows move over...
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The growth and decay storm tracker
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
Proc. Eighth Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, 10-15 Jan. 1999, pp. 58-62.
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An elliptical filter/tracker capable of accounting for systematic growth and delay, designated the Growth and Decay Storm Tracker, has been developed and tested. Its performance depends on the size and shape of the filter, the performance of the cross-correlation tracker, the time interval between successive scans, the forecast lead time, and the type of storm being tracked.
Summary
An elliptical filter/tracker capable of accounting for systematic growth and delay, designated the Growth and Decay Storm Tracker, has been developed and tested. Its performance depends on the size and shape of the filter, the performance of the cross-correlation tracker, the time interval between successive scans, the forecast lead time...
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