Publications

The Tower Flight Data Manager (TFDM) is a new terminal automation platform that will provide an integrated tower-user display suite including an extended electronic flight strip or "flight data management" (FDM) display. The integrated information exchange and processing environment established by TFDM will support a suite of automation-assisted user support tools collectively designated as the Arrival/Departure Management Tool or A/DMT. A/DMT will develop and manage an integrated plan for arrival, scheduled (and to the extent possible) non-scheduled departure operations at the airport, based on 4D-trajectory assignments. A primary concern of A/DMT is the efficient use of the runway complex to meet service demand from both arrivals and departures. In addition, A/DMT seeks to reduce fuel usage and engine emissions on the airport surface, to permit more efficient use of gates and holding areas, and to enhance the safety of surface operations. We first put forth a strategy for developing a scalable TFDM-A/DMT Information Management Architecture (TIMA) employing standard information exchange models, services and data formats. This architecture will be consistent with evolving System Wide Information Management (SWIM) technologies and data standards, and will support efficient insertion of processing algorithms (e.g. surface trajectory management algorithms) developed by the research community and/or industry. Next, we describe TIMA . While TIMA makes use of Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) principles, it is primarily an information-oriented architecture; we discuss why this architectural style is necessary for TFDM, and how it is also beneficial for SWIM. We conclude with a description of a general model for managing temporal aspects of information within TFDM. TIMA needs to support not only real-time operations, but post-facto analysis as well. A major difficulty in conducting analyses involving different data sources is time synchronization of data. We describe a method for associating temporal information with data sources in a data-agnostic manner, so that data can be retrieved from a variety of sources in a uniform manner.

This report documents the Lincoln Laboratory evaluation of the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System II (TCAS II) logic version 7.1. TCAS II is an airborne collision avoidance system required since 30 December 1993 by the FAA on all air carrier aircraft with more than 30 passenger seats operating in the U.S. airspace. Version 7.1 was created to correct two potential safety problems in earlier versions. The first change focuses on the sense reversal logic. The second change focuses on avoiding "wrong way" responses to Vertical Speed Limit or "Adjust Vertical Speed, Adjust" RAs. Lincoln Laboratory evaluated the logic by examining more than eight million simulated pairwise encounters, derived from actual tracks recorded in U.S. airspace. The main goals of the evaluation were: (1) to study the performance of the revised sense reversal logic for encounters where one pilot ignores the TCAS advisory; (2) to determine if the revised sense reversal logic has an adverse impact on encounters where both pilots follow the TCAS advisories; (3) to determine if the change from "Adjust Vertical Speed, Adjust" advisories to "Level Off, Level Off" advisories provides a safety benefit for TCAS. Three sets of encounters were examined in order to fulfill these goals: encounters where both aircraft are TCAS-equipped and both pilots follow the advisories; encounters where both aircraft are TCAS-equipped and one pilot does not follow the advisory; and encounters where only one aircraft is TCAS-equipped. A detailed analysis followed by a summary is provided for each set of encounters. An overall summary is given at the end of the report.

Appendix to Project Report ATC-346, Evaluation of TCAS II Version 7.1 Using the Fast-Time Encounter Generator Model, Volume 1.

Airspace encounter models, covering close encounter situations that may occur after standard separation assurance has been lost, are a critical component in the safety assessment of aviation procedures and collision avoidance systems. Of particular relevance to Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) is the potential for encountering general aviation aircraft that are flying under Visual Flight Rules (VFR) and are not in contact with air traffic control. In response to the need to develop a model of these types of encounters, Lincoln Laboratory undertook an extensive data collection and modeling effort involving more than 96,000 unconventional aircraft tracks. The outcome of this effort was nine individual models encompassing ultralights, gliders, balloons, and airships. The models use Bayesian networks to represent relationships between dynamic variables and to construct random trajectories that are statistically similar to those observed in the data. The intruder trajectories can be used in fast-time Monte Carlo simulations to estimate collision risk. The model described in this report is one of three developed by Lincoln Laboratory. A correlated encounter model has been developed to represent situations in which it is likely that there would b e air traffic control intervention prior to a close enounter. The correlated model applies to encounters involving aircraft receiving Air Traffic Control (ATC) services and with transponders. TAn encounter with an intruder that does not have a transponder is uncorrelated in the sense that it is unlikely that there would be prior intervention by air traffic control. The uncorrelated model described in this report is based on global databases of pilot-submitted track data. This work is a follow-on to an uncorrelated conventional model developed from recorded radar tracks from aircraft using a 1200 transponder code. A byproduct of this encounter modeling effort was the extraction of feature distributions for unconventional aircraft. This provides an extensive collection of unconventional aircraft behavior in the airspace.

Collision avoidance systems play an important role in the future of aviation safety. Before new technologies on board manned or unmanned aircraft are deployed, rigorous analysis using encounter simulations is required to prove system robustness. These simulations rely on models that accurately reflect the geometries and dynamics of aircraft encounters at close range. These types of encounter models have been developed by several organizations since the early 1980s. Lincoln Laboratory's newer encounter models, however, provide a higher-fidelity representation of encounters, are based on substantially more data, leverage a theoretical framework for finding optimal model structures, and reflect recent changes in the airspace. Three categories of encounter model were developed by Lincoln Laboratory. Two of these categories are used for modeling conventional aircraft; one involving encounters with prior air traffic control intervention and one without. The third category of encounter model is for encounters with unconventional aircraft -- such as gliders, skydivers, balloons, and airships -- that typically do not carry transponders. Together, these encounter models are being used to examine the safety and effectiveness of aircraft collision avoidance systems and as a foundation for algorithms for future manned and unmanned systems.

Three-dimensional mesoscale numerical simulations were performed over Niger in order to investigate dry cyclogenesis in the West African intertropical discontinuity (ITD) during the summer, when it is located over the Sahel. The implications of dry cyclogenesis on dust emission and transport over West Africa are also addressed using the model results, together with spaceborne observations from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infra-Red Imager (SEVIRI) and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). The study focuses on the case of 7-8 July 2006, during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) Special Observing Period 2a1. Model results show the formation of three dry cyclones in the ITD during a 24-h period. Simulations are used to investigate the formation and the development of one of these cyclones over Niger in the lee of the Hoggar-Air Mountains. They show the development of the vortex to be associated with (1) strong horizontal shear and low-level convergence existing along the monsoon shearline and (2) enhanced northeasterly winds associated with orographic blocking of air masses from the Mediterranean Sea. The dry cyclone was apparent between 0700 and 1300 UTC in the simulation, and it was approximately 400 km wide and 1500 m deep. Potential vorticity in the center of vortex reached nearly 6 PVU at the end of the cyclogenesis period (1000 UTC). The role of the orography on cyclogenesis along the ITD was evaluated through model simulations without orography. The comparison of the characteristics of the vortex in the simulations with and without orography suggests that the orography plays a secondary but still important role in the formation of the cyclone. Orography and related flow splitting tend to create low-level jets in the lee of the Hoggar and Air mountains which, in turn, create conditions favorable for the onset of a better defined and more intense vortex in the ITD region. Moreover, orography blocking appears to favor the occurrence of a longer-lived cyclone. Furthermore, model results suggested that strong surface winds (~11 m s−1) enhanced by the intensification of the vortex led to the emission of dust mass fluxes as large as 3 ug m−2 s−1. The mobilized dust was mixed upward to a height of 4–5 km to be made available for long-range transport. This study suggests that the occurrence of dry vortices in the ITD region may contribute significantly to the total dust activity over West Africa during summer. The distribution of dust over the Sahara-Sahel may be affected over areas and at time scales much larger than those associated with the cyclone itself.

This paper will discuss the progress the Multi-function Phased Array Radar (MPAR) research program has made over the last 18 months as well as insight into the program strategy for moving forward. Current research activities include evaluating the impact of MPAR's faster scanning rates to aviation weather algorithms (e.g., how it will help in predicting storm growth and decay) and exploring dual polarization for phased array radars. Additionally, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has expanded the MPAR multi-agency partnership and is sponsoring research into the mitigation of wind-farm interference on weather sensing. Significant research in semi-conductor technology and advances in transmit/receive module design and phased array architectures are beginning to create a pathway towards system affordability. The MPAR program plan calls for a technology demonstration phase followed by the initiation of a prototype development effort within the next five years. This paper will provide the updates on these and other program activities.

Dozens of Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) are implemented each summer for San Francisco International Airport (SFO) in order to cope with reduced capacity caused by the presence of warm-season stratus in the approach zone. The stratus prevents the use of dual approaches to SFO's closely-spaced parallel runways, which essentially reduces the arrival capacity by half. In 2004, a prototype system for providing probabilistic stratus forecast guidance was transitioned from the research community to NWS Monterey. This system was intended to be used as a tool for improving the daily forecast of stratus clearing time from the approach zone, and correspondingly improve the efficiency of GDP implementation strategy. Since its transition to the NWS in 2004, the automated forecast guidance system has continued to produce reliable forecasts of daily stratus clearing time. However, this success has not adequately translated to a marked improvement in GDP efficiency. Analysis by the NWS indicates that the existing mechanisms for introducing the forecast guidance information into the GDP decision process, as well as the GDP implementation strategy itself, are not suited for taking full advantage of the forecast skill demonstrated by the system. A historical examination of SFO GDP implementation based on the probabilistic forecasts provided by the automated forecast guidance system is currently in process, with the objective being a recommendation for a more effective GDP strategy. An important consideration is understanding the risk/reward associated with the decision process. In this instance, the reward is increased efficiency seen as reduced aircraft delays, at the risk of creating increased delay, aircraft diversions, and controller workload in the event that an incorrect optimistic forecast results in the premature release of ground-held aircraft. This investigation is being performed in concert with the weather-integration objectives of the current FAA modernization program, particularly the integration of weather information that is delivered in a probabilistic format. Shortcomings within the current GDP strategy are described to provide context for potential improvements that exploit the probabilistic forecasts currently emerging from the research community.

Air traffic congestion caused by convective weather in the US has become a serious national problem. Several studies have shown that there is a critical need for timely, reliable and high quality forecasts of precipitation and echo tops with forecast time horizons of up to 12 hours in order to predict airspace capacity (Robinson et al. 2008, Evans et al. 2006 and FAA REDAC Report 2007). Yet, there are currently several forecast systems available to strategic planners across the National Airspace System (NAS) that are not fully meeting Air Traffic Management (ATM) needs. Furthermore, the use of many forecasting systems increases the potential for conflicting information in the planning process, which can cause situational awareness problems between operational facilities. One of the goals of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) is to consolidate these redundant and sometimes conflicting forecast systems into a Single Authoritative Source (SAS) for aviation uses. The FAA initiated an effort to begin consolidating these systems in 2006, which led to the establishment of a collaboration between MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT LL), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Research Applications Laboratory (RAL), the NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory (ESRL) Global Systems Division (GSD) and NASA, called the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA; Wolfson et al. 2008). The on-going collaboration is structured to leverage the expertise and technologies of each laboratory to build a CoSPA forecast capability that not only exceeds all current operational forecast capabilities and skill, but that provides enough resolution and skill to meet the demands of the envisioned NextGen decision support technology. The current CoSPA prototype for 0-6 hour forecasts is planned for operation as part of the NextGen Initial Operational Capability (IOC) in 2013. CoSPA is funded under the FAA's Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP). The first CoSPA research prototype demonstration was conducted during the summer of 2008. Technologies from the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS; Evans and Ducot 2006), National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF; Megenhardt et al. 2004), and NOAA’s Rapid Update Cycle (RUC; Benjamin et al. 2004) and High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR; Benjamin et al. 2009) models were consolidated along with new technologies into a single high-resolution forecast and display system. Historically, forecasts based on heuristics and extrapolation have performed well in the 0-2 hour window, whereas forecasts based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models have shown better performance than heuristics past 3-4 hours (Figure 1). One of the goals of CoSPA is to optimally blend heuristics and NWP models into a unified set of aviation-specific storm forecast products with the best overall performance possible. The CoSPA prototype demonstration began in July 2008 with 2-6 hr forecasts of Vertically-Integrated Liquid water (VIL) that seamlessly matched with the 0-2 hr VIL forecasts available in CIWS. These real-time forecasts have been made available to the research team and FAA management only through a web-based interface. This paper discusses the system infrastructure, the forecast display, the forecast technology and performance of the 2-6 hr VIL forecast. Our early assessment based on the 2008 demonstration is that CoSPA is showing tremendous promise for greatly improving strategic storm forecasts for the NAS. Early user feedback during CoSPA briefings suggested that the 6 hr forecast time horizon be extended to 8 hours to better meet their planning functions, and that forecasts of Echo Tops must also be included.

Airspace capacity constraints caused by adverse weather are a major driver for enhanced Traffic Flow Management (TFM) capabilities. One of the most prominent TFM initiatives introduced in recent years is the Airspace Flow Program (AFP). AFPs are used to plan and manage flights through airspace constrained by severe weather. An AFP is deployed using "strategic" (i.e., 4-6 hour) weather forecasts to determine AFP traffic throughput rates. These rates are set for hourly periods. However, as convective weather continuously evolves, the achievable en route airspace throughput can fluctuate significantly over periods as short as 15-30 minutes. Thus, without tactical AFP adjustments, inefficiencies in available airspace usage can arise, often resulting in increased air traffic delay. An analysis of AFP usage in 2007 was conducted in order to (1) better understand the relationship between AFP parameters and convective weather characteristics, and (2) assess the potential use of an objective model for forecasting tactical AFP throughput. An en route airway blockage-based algorithm, using tactical forecast information from the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS), has been developed in order to objectively forecast achievable flow rates through AFP boundaries during convective weather. A description of the model and preliminary model results are presented.