Publications
Route selection decision support in convective weather: a case study of the effects of weather and operational assumptions on departure throughput
June 23, 2003
Conference Paper
Published in:
5th Eurocontrol/FAA ATM R&D Seminar, 23-27 2003.
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Summary
This paper presents a detailed study of a convective weather event affecting the northeastern United States on 19 April 2002: its impacts on departure throughput, the response of traffic managers and an analysis of the potential effects of decision support on system performance. We compare actual departure throughput to what may have been achieved using the Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT), a prototype decision support tool. We examine two questions: Can decision support identify opportunities to release departures that were missed during the event? How is route selection guidance affected by the operational model incorporated into the decision support tool? By "operational model", we mean three things: the choice of weather forecast information used to define hazards (precipitation, echo tops, etc.), the model for how airspace is used (route definition and allocation) and the assessment of the likelihood that a given route is passable. We focus our analysis on the operational model only; we eliminate weather forecast uncertainty as a factor in the analysis by running RAPT using the actual observed weather as the forecast ('perfect' forecast). Results show that decision support based on perfect forecasts is sensitive to all three elements of the operational model. The sensitivity to weather metrics became evident when we compared decision support based upon perfect forecasts of level 3 vertically integrated liquid (VIL) to that based upon VIL plus storm echo tops. Traffic managers were at times able to move more aircraft by abandoning nominal routing than if they had used nominal routing with perfect weather information. The assessment of route availability will, at times, be ambiguous; different interpretations of that assessment lead to decisions that result in significant differences in departure throughput. These results suggest that for traffic flow management tools, a realistic operational model may be at least as important as the frequently discussed problem of weather forecast uncertainty.
Summary
This paper presents a detailed study of a convective weather event affecting the northeastern United States on 19 April 2002: its impacts on departure throughput, the response of traffic managers and an analysis of the potential effects of decision support on system performance. We compare actual departure throughput to what...
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The effect of topography on the initial condition sensitivity of a mesoscale model
June 23, 2003
Conference Paper
Published in:
10th Conf. on Mesoscale Processes, 23-27 June 2003.
Summary
Errors in NWP model forecasts are typically due to deficiencies in the model formulation, inaccuracies associated with the numerical integration techniques, and errors in the specification of initial conditions. This study investigates the latter of these three issues and, in particular, elucidates the errors in the initial conditions due to inadequate data resolution. In a basic sense, for the atmosphere to be adequately sampled at a given length scale, it is not always necessary to increase the number of samples throughout the entire domain. Increased sampling resolution has the greatest benefit in the regions where gradients in the atmospheric conditions exist. Targeted observation techniques attempt to take advantage of this fact by using additional observations to improve the initial analysis in the regions that will have the most impact on forecast accuracy (Emanuel et al. 1995). The result is an economical means to reduce initial condition error and improve forecast accuracy. It is well known that terrain can serve as a localized forcing mechanism in high-resolution models. In addition to acting as a forcing mechanism, variations in terrain can also create strong gradients in the atmospheric fields of models using terrain following vertical coordinates. It is reasonable to assume that if these gradients were better represented in the initial conditions, forecasts accuracies could improve. The present study examines the relationship between terrain variability and the sensitivity of a high-resolution wind forecast to errors in the initial conditions in these areas. The background behind this study and a brief description of the terrain and atmospheric characteristics of the cases used in the experiments are presented in section 2. Initial condition sensitivity analysis results from the fifth generation Pennsylvania State University (PSU), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) adjoint and forward models are contained in sections 3 and 4. A summary of the results and conclusions are found in section 5.
Summary
Errors in NWP model forecasts are typically due to deficiencies in the model formulation, inaccuracies associated with the numerical integration techniques, and errors in the specification of initial conditions. This study investigates the latter of these three issues and, in particular, elucidates the errors in the initial conditions due to...
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Accuracy of motion-compensated NEXRAD precipitation
June 23, 2003
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-312
Summary
A number of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) aviation weather systems utilize Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) precipitation products including the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS), Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS), Medium Intensity Airport Weather System (MIAWS), and the Weather and Radar Processor (WARP). The precipitation products from a NEXRAD [e.g., base reflectivity, composite reflectivity (CR), and vertical integrated liquid (VIL)] are generally only updated once with each NEXRAD volume scan, nominally at 5-6 minute intervals. Hence, the indicated position of storms may not correspond to the actual position due to movement of the storms since the last NEXRAD product update. This latency is particularly a concern in terminal applications such as MIAWS, which use the NEXRAD precipitation product to provide time critical information on moderate and heavy precipitation impacts on the final approach and departure corridors and runways. In order to provide a more accurate depiction, the MIAWS precipitation map is updated (advected) every 30 seconds based on the motion of the storms. The CIWS system performs a similar advection of NEXRAD data before mosaicing the precipitation products from individual NEXRADs. In both cases, motion vectors used for advection are generated by spatial cross-correlation of two consecutive precipitation maps (Chornoboy et al., 1994). This report addresses the accuracy of the advected precipitation map as compared to the current NEXRAD precipitation map using seven MIAWS cases from the Memphis, TN testbed and Jackson, MS prototype. We find that the advected precipitation product is significantly more accurate at providing a depiction of the current intensity of the storms as a fbnction of location. Without advection, the precipitation product from successive NEXRAD volume scans differs by at least one VIP level for over 47.5% of the one square kilometer pixels and has VIP level differences of two levels or more for 6.9% of the pixels in cases where both products had precipitation in a location. The advected precipitation product differs by one or more levels in only 17.2% of the pixels and a VIP level difference of two or more levels is observed in only 1.6% of the pixels. The percentage of cells in which there is precipitation in one map and no precipitation in the other is reduced from over 22% to less than 11% by use of advection. The analysis approach utilized did not quantitatively determine the relative importance of storm growth and decay over the period of the volume scan versus errors in storm motion estimation in causing the differences between the advected precipitation field and the current precipitation field.
Summary
A number of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) aviation weather systems utilize Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) precipitation products including the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS), Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS), Medium Intensity Airport Weather System (MIAWS), and the Weather and Radar Processor (WARP). The precipitation products from a NEXRAD [e.g...
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Medium intensity airport weather system NEXRAD selection recommendations
April 29, 2003
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-311
Summary
Under Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) sponsorship, Lincoln Laboratory has developed a Medium Intensity Airport Weather System (MIAWS). MIAWS provides air traffic controllers at medium- intensity airports a real time color display of weather impacting the terminal airspace. The weather data comes from nearby Doppler weather surveillance radars, called Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD). since May 2000 at field sites in Memphis (TN), Jackson (MS), Little Rock (AR), and Springfield (MO). With the success of the MIAWS prototypes and favorable response among air traffic controller users, the FAA is seeking to rapidly deploy MIAWS systems at forty airports within the National Airspace System Lincoln Lab has been operating prototypes of the Medium Intensity Airport Weather System (MIAWS) WAS). This report identifies suitable NEXRAD systems for each of the 40 MIAWS airports and three additional test and/or maintenance FAA facilities. Several other radar selection options are also provided to account for availability and cost-saving contingencies.
Summary
Under Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) sponsorship, Lincoln Laboratory has developed a Medium Intensity Airport Weather System (MIAWS). MIAWS provides air traffic controllers at medium- intensity airports a real time color display of weather impacting the terminal airspace. The weather data comes from nearby Doppler weather surveillance radars, called Next Generation...
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Evaluation of TDWR range-velocity ambiguity mitigation techniques
April 4, 2003
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-310
Summary
Range and velocity ambiguities pose significant data quality challenges for the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR). For typical pulse repetition frequencies (PRFs) of 1-2 kHz, the radar is subject to both range-ambiguous precipitation returns and velocity aliasing. Experience shows that these are a major contributor to failures of the system's wind shear detection algorithms. Here we evaluate the degree of mitigation offered by existing phase diversity methods to these problems. Using optimized processing techniques, we analyze the performance of two particular phase codes that are best suited for application to TDWRs- random and SZ(8/64) [Sachidananda and Zrnic', [1999]- in the protection of weak-trip power, velocity, and spectral width estimates. Results from both simulated and real weather data indicate that the SZ(8/64) code generally outperforms the random code, except for protection of 1st trip from 5th trip interference. However, the SZ code estimates require a priori knowledge of out-of-trip spectral widths for censoring. This information cannot be provided adequately by a separate scan with a Pulse Repetition Frequency (PRF) low enough to unambiguously cover the entire range of detectable weather, because then the upper limit of measurable spectral width is only about 2 m/s . For this reason we conclude that SZ phase codes are not appropriate for TDWR use. For velocity ambiguity resolution, the random phase code could be transmitted at two PRFs on alternating dwells. Assuming the velocity changes little between two consecutive dwells, a Chinese remainder type of approach can be used to dealias the velocities. Strong ground clutter at close range, however, disables this scheme for gates at the beginning of the 2nd trip of the higher PRF. We offer an alternative scheme for range-velocity ambiguity mitigation: Multistaggered Pulse Processing (MSPP). Yielding excellent velocity dealiasing capabilities, the MSPP method should also provide protection from patchy, small-scale out-of-trip weather. To obtain maximum performance in both range and velocity dealiasing, we suggest that information from the initial low-PRF scan be used to decide the best waveform to transmit in the following scan-random phase code with alternating-dwell PRFs or MSPP. Such an adaptive approach presages future developments in weather radar, for example electronically scanned arrays allow selective probing of relevant weather events.
Summary
Range and velocity ambiguities pose significant data quality challenges for the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR). For typical pulse repetition frequencies (PRFs) of 1-2 kHz, the radar is subject to both range-ambiguous precipitation returns and velocity aliasing. Experience shows that these are a major contributor to failures of the system's...
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Multi-radar integration to improve en route aviation operations in severe convective weather
February 12, 2003
Conference Paper
Published in:
19th Int. Conf. of Interactive Info Processing Systems in Meteorology, Oceanography and Hydrology, IIPS, 9-13 February 2003.
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Summary
In this paper, we describe a major new FAA initiative, the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS), to improve convective weather decision support for congested en route airspace and the terminals within that airspace through use of a large, heterogeneous network of weather sensing radars as well as many additional sensors. The objective of the CIWS concept exploration is to determine the improvements in NAS performance that could be achieved by providing en route controllers, en route and major terminal traffic flow managers, and airline dispatch with accurate, fully automated high update-rate information on current and near term (0-2 hour) storm locations, severity and vertical structure so that they can achieve more efficient tactical use of the airspace. These "tactical" traffic flow management products will complement the longer-term (2-6 hr) forecasts that are also needed for flight planning and strategic traffic flow management. Since balancing the en route traffic flows in the presence of time varying impacts on sector capacities by convective weather is essential if delays are to be reduced, an important element of the CIWS initiative is interfacing to and, in some cases providing, air traffic flow management (TFM) and airline dispatch decision support tools (DSTs)
Summary
In this paper, we describe a major new FAA initiative, the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS), to improve convective weather decision support for congested en route airspace and the terminals within that airspace through use of a large, heterogeneous network of weather sensing radars as well as many additional sensors...
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Automated forecasting of road conditions and recommended road treatments for winter storms
February 9, 2003
Conference Paper
Published in:
19th Int. Conf. of Interactive Information Processing Systems for Meteorology, Oceanography and Hydrology, 9-13-February 2003.
Summary
Over the past decade there have been significant improvements in the availability, volume, and quality of the sensors and technology utilized to both capture the current state of the atmosphere and generate weather forecasts. New radar systems, automated surface observing systems, satellites and advanced numerical models have all contributed to these advances. However, the practical application of this new technology for transportation decision makers has been primarily limited to aviation. Surface transportation operators, like air traffic operators, require tailored weather products and alerts and guidance on recommended remedial action (e.g. applying chemicals or adjusting traffic flow). Recognizing this deficiency, the FHWA (Federal Highway Administration) has been working to define the weather related needs and operational requirements of the surface transportation community since October 1999. A primary focus of the FHWA baseline user needs and requirements has been winter road maintenance personnel (Pisano, 2001). A key finding of the requirements process was that state DOTs (Departments of Transportation) were in need of a weather forecast system that provided them both an integrated view of their weather, road and crew operations and advanced guidance on what course of action might be required to keep traffic flowing safely. As a result, the FHWA funded a small project (~$900K/year) involving a consortium of national laboratories to aggressively research and develop a prototype integrated Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS). The prototype MDSS uses state-of-the-art weather and road condition forecast technology and integrates it with FHWA anti-icing guidelines to provide guidance to State DOTs in planning and managing winter storm events (Mahoney, 2003). The overall flow of the MDSS is shown in Figure 1. Basic meteorological data and advanced models are ingested into the Road Weather Forecast System (RWFS). The RWFS, developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), dynamically weights the ingested model and station data to produce ambient weather forecasts (temperature, precipitation, wind, etc.). More details on the RWFS system can be found in (Myers, 2002). Next, the RCTM (Road Condition Treatment Module) ingests the forecasted weather conditions from the RWFS, calculates the predicted road conditions (snow depth, pavement temperature), Once a treatment plan has been determined, the recommendations are presented in map and table form through the MDSS display. The display also allows users to examine specific road and weather parameters, and to override the algorithm recommended treatments with a user-specified plan. A brief test of the MDSS system was performed in Minnesota during the spring of 2002. Further refinements were made and an initial version of the MDSS was released by the FHWA in September 2002. While this basic system is not yet complete, it does ingest all the necessary weather data and produce an integrated view of the road conditions and recommended treatments. This paper details the RCTM algorithm and its’ components, including the current and potential capabilities of the system.
Summary
Over the past decade there have been significant improvements in the availability, volume, and quality of the sensors and technology utilized to both capture the current state of the atmosphere and generate weather forecasts. New radar systems, automated surface observing systems, satellites and advanced numerical models have all contributed to...
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An analysis of the impacts of wake vortex restrictions at LGA
September 16, 2002
Project Report
Published in:
Project Report ATC-305, MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Summary
Wake vortex restrictions at New York's La Guardia airport cause a significant reduction in capacity when aircraft land on runway 22 and depart on runway 31. This report presents an analysis of the annual delay cost at LGA associated with the wake vortex restrictions. We find that the delay due to these restrictions exceeds 4000 hours annually, and that these restrictions cause a significant workload increase to controllers at both La Guardia and the New York TRACON. If traffic levels were to increase 10% from their February 2001 levels, the corresponding increase in delay due to the wake vortex restrictions would rise from 30 hours a day to over 400 hours a day in this runway configuration. It is also found that for a meaningful increase in passenger capacity in this runway configuration to be as demand grows, restrictions must be reduced from their current levels. If the percentage of heavy/757's doubled at LGA, there would be no increase in passenger capacity while daily delays in this runway configuration due to current wake vortex separation standards would increase by 250 hours.
Summary
Wake vortex restrictions at New York's La Guardia airport cause a significant reduction in capacity when aircraft land on runway 22 and depart on runway 31. This report presents an analysis of the annual delay cost at LGA associated with the wake vortex restrictions. We find that the delay due...
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An analysis of the impacts of wake vortex restrictions at LGA
September 16, 2002
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-305
Summary
Wake vortex restrictions at New York's La Guardia airport cause a significant reduction in capacity when aircraft land on runway 22 and depart on runway 31. This report presents an analysis of the annual delay cost at LGA associated with the wake vortex restrictions. We find that the delay due to these restrictions exceeds 4000 hours annually, and that these restrictions cause a significant workload increase to controllers at both La Guardia and the New York TRACON. If traffic levels were to increase 10% from their February 2001 levels, the corresponding increase in delay due to the wake vortex restrictions would rise from 30 hours a day to over 400 hours a day in this runway configuration. It is also found that for a meaningful increase in passenger capacity in this runway configuration to be as demand grows, restrictions must be reduced from their current levels. If the percentage of heavy/757's doubled at LGA, there would be no increase in passenger capacity while daily delays in this runway configuration due to current wake vortex separation standards would increase by 250 hours.
Summary
Wake vortex restrictions at New York's La Guardia airport cause a significant reduction in capacity when aircraft land on runway 22 and depart on runway 31. This report presents an analysis of the annual delay cost at LGA associated with the wake vortex restrictions. We find that the delay due...
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CSKETCH image processing library
August 21, 2002
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-283
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Summary
The CSKETCH image processing library is a collection of C++ classes and global functions which comprise a development environment for meteorological algorithms. The library is best thought of as a 'tool-kit' which contains many standard mathematical and signal processing functions often employed in the analysis of weather radar data. A tutorial-style introduction to the library is given, complete with many examples of class and global function usage. Included is an in-depth look at the main class of the library, the SKArray class, which is a templatized and encapsulated class for storing numerical data arrays of one, two, or three dimensions. Following the tutorial is a complete reference for the library which describes all publicly-available class data members and class member functions, as well as all global functions included in the library.
Summary
The CSKETCH image processing library is a collection of C++ classes and global functions which comprise a development environment for meteorological algorithms. The library is best thought of as a 'tool-kit' which contains many standard mathematical and signal processing functions often employed in the analysis of weather radar data. A...
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