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Convective weather avoidance modeling for low-altitude routes
May 31, 2011
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-376
Summary
Thunderstorms are a leading cause of delay in the National Airspace System (NAS), and significant research has been conducted to predict the areas pilots will avoid during a storm. An example of such research is the Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM), which provides the likelihood of pilot deviation due to convective weather in a given area. This report extends the scope of CWAM to include low-altitude flights, which typically occur below the tops of convective weather and have slightly differentoperational constraints. In general, the set of low-altitude flights include short-hop routes and low-altitude escape routes used to reduce the impact of convective weather in the termnial area. For classification, low altitude flights are identified as either deviations or non-deviations, and the corresponding weather features are analyzed. Precipitation intensity is observed to be the best predictor of deviation in the low-altitude flight regime, as compared to the differenc ein altitude between the flight and the echo tops for en route flights. Additionally, the low-altitude CWAM performs better than the departure CWAM currently used in the Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT) when tested on deterministic weather data.
Summary
Thunderstorms are a leading cause of delay in the National Airspace System (NAS), and significant research has been conducted to predict the areas pilots will avoid during a storm. An example of such research is the Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM), which provides the likelihood of pilot deviation due to...
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Estimation of potential IDRP benefits during convective weather SWAP
May 26, 2011
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-381
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Summary
This document presents a preliminary analysis of potential departure delay reduction benefits in New York as the result of the use of the Integrated Departure Route Planning (IDRP) tool during convective severe weather avoidance programs (SWAP). The analysis is based on weather impact and air traffic data from operations between May and September 2010 in the New York metroplex region. Two methodologies were employed in the analysis: "flight pool" and "resource pool." In the flight pool methodology, individual flights with excessive taxi times were identified, and opportunities to find potential alternative reroutes using information that IDRP will provide were assessed. In the resource pool methodology, route impact minutes were tallied over several days, based on the judgment of a human analysis, and opportunities to recover capacity lost to route impacts via IDRP-identified reroutes were estimated. The flight pool methodology estimated that approximately 156 hours of delay could be saved through the use of IDRP over a full SWAP season. The resource pool methodology estimated that approximately 15% of capacity lost to convective weather impacts could be recovered via IDRP-based reroutes. It should be noted that the potential benefits are based on several assumptions that are described in detail in the text of the report. The estimation of delay savings due to reroute is also speculative. It is very difficult to ascertain when the assignment of a reroute actually makes use of underutilized capacity and when the reroute simply shifts the problem from one congested resource to another. Further research is needed to develop reliable metrics that can guide the assessment of reroute impacts on overall traffic management performance.
Summary
This document presents a preliminary analysis of potential departure delay reduction benefits in New York as the result of the use of the Integrated Departure Route Planning (IDRP) tool during convective severe weather avoidance programs (SWAP). The analysis is based on weather impact and air traffic data from operations between...
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An algorithm to identify robust convective weather avoidance polygons in en route airspace
September 13, 2010
Conference Paper
Published in:
ATIO 2010: 10th AIAA Aviation Technology Integration and Operations Conf., 13-15 September 2010.
Summary
The paper describes an algorithm for constructing convective weather avoidance polygons. The algorithm combines weather avoidance fields (WAF) from the en route convective weather avoidance model (CWAM) with edges automatically detected in the echo tops field, clustering, convex hull fitting and wind data to build weather avoidance polygons. Results for 2 case days with significantly different weather patterns were classified and studied.
Summary
The paper describes an algorithm for constructing convective weather avoidance polygons. The algorithm combines weather avoidance fields (WAF) from the en route convective weather avoidance model (CWAM) with edges automatically detected in the echo tops field, clustering, convex hull fitting and wind data to build weather avoidance polygons. Results for...
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OEP terminal and CONUS weather radar coverage gap identification analysis for NextGen
May 19, 2010
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-369
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Summary
The initial results of a weather radar coverage analysis in support of the Reduce Weather Impacts (RWI) Sensor RightSizing program are presented. The main impetus behind this study is to identify gaps in the radar network relative to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) end-state performance requirements. Because detailed performance requirements are currently available only for super-density terminal airspace, we focused on this domain. We also analyzed, to a lesser extent, the contiguous United States (CONUS) airspace as an approximation to the en route airspace. Significant gaps were uncovered in the following requirement areas. (1) Vertical resolution. The current weather radar network (and any future radar network of reasonable cost) will not meet the 4D weather cube single authoritative source (4D WxSAS) vertical resolution requirements for both super-density terminal and en route airspace domains. (2) Vertical accuracy. Accurate determination of the radar beam height is difficult due to the natural variability of the vertical refractivitiy gradient in the atmosphere. (3) Update period for convective weather. The current weather radars have volume scan update periods that are substantially longer than the required times. (4) Horizontal resolution. This requirement is met in only some parts of the super-density terminal and en route airspaces (5) Low-altitude coverage. The current weather radars are generally spaced too far apart to provide seamless coverage of the boundary layer. (6) Overall terminal airspace weather radar coverage is significantly diminished due to terrain blockage at a handful of major airports.
Summary
The initial results of a weather radar coverage analysis in support of the Reduce Weather Impacts (RWI) Sensor RightSizing program are presented. The main impetus behind this study is to identify gaps in the radar network relative to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) end-state performance requirements. Because detailed...
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CIWS product description, revision 1.0
April 30, 2010
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-355
Summary
Lincoln Laboratory has developed a set of information models for the encoding and distribution of data products from the National Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) prototype, currently operating at Lincoln Laboratory in Lexington, Massachusetts. CIWS data products can be categorized as gridded and non-gridded. Gridded products are typically expressed as rectangular arrays whose elements contain a data value coinciding with uniformly-spaced observations or computed results on a 2-D surface. Gridded data arrays map to earth's surface through a map projection, for example, Lambert Conformal or Lambert Azimuthal Equal-Area. Non-gridded data products express observations or computed results associated with singular or sparsely distributed sets of geo-spatial locations such as points, curves, or contours. CIWS prototype data products were used to develop, refine, and evaluate reference information models for the CIWS gridded and non-gridded data. Data packaging methods were evaluated and selected on the basis of public-domain open-source availability and metadata support. Network Common Data Format (NetCDF), provided by Unidata, was selected as the information model for gridded CIWS products. For the non-gridded products, XML schemas have been developed along with sample XML instances to illustrate schema-compliant product encodings. These models follow and extend upon a number of Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and ISO standards including Geography Markup Language (GML), Observations and Measurements (OM), and Eurocontrol's Weather Exchange Model (WXXM). This document is intended to serve as a reference for the description of CIWS data product files.
Summary
Lincoln Laboratory has developed a set of information models for the encoding and distribution of data products from the National Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) prototype, currently operating at Lincoln Laboratory in Lexington, Massachusetts. CIWS data products can be categorized as gridded and non-gridded. Gridded products are typically expressed as...
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NextGen Weather Processor architecture study
March 9, 2010
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-361
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Summary
The long-term objectives for the NextGen Weather Processor (NWP) include consolidation of today's multiple weather systems, incorporation of recent and emerging Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) infrastructure (Federal Telecommunications Infrastructure (FTI), System Wide Information Management (SWIM), NextGen Network-Enabled Weather (NNEW)), leveraging National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraiton (NOAA) and/or commercial weather resources, and providing a solid development and runn-time platform for advanced aviation weather capabilities. These objectives are to be achieved in a staged fashion, ideally with new components coming on-line in time to replace existing capabilities prior to their end-of-life dates. As part of NWP Segment 1, a number of alternative implementations for the NWP as it might exist in the 2013 time frame have been proposed. This report examines the alternatives form a top-down technical perspective, assessing how well each maps to a high-level NWP architecture consistent with the long-term NextGen information sharing vision. Tehcnical challenges and opportunities for weather product improvements associated with each alternative are discussed. Additional alternatives consistent with the high-level NWP architecture, as well as a number of suggested follow-on analysis efforts are also presented.
Summary
The long-term objectives for the NextGen Weather Processor (NWP) include consolidation of today's multiple weather systems, incorporation of recent and emerging Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) infrastructure (Federal Telecommunications Infrastructure (FTI), System Wide Information Management (SWIM), NextGen Network-Enabled Weather (NNEW)), leveraging National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraiton (NOAA) and/or commercial weather resources...
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Dry cyclogenesis and dust mobilization in the intertropical discontinuity of the West African Monsoon: a case study
March 14, 2009
Journal Article
Published in:
J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 114, 14 March 2009, D05115.
Summary
Three-dimensional mesoscale numerical simulations were performed over Niger in order to investigate dry cyclogenesis in the West African intertropical discontinuity (ITD) during the summer, when it is located over the Sahel. The implications of dry cyclogenesis on dust emission and transport over West Africa are also addressed using the model results, together with spaceborne observations from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infra-Red Imager (SEVIRI) and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). The study focuses on the case of 7-8 July 2006, during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) Special Observing Period 2a1. Model results show the formation of three dry cyclones in the ITD during a 24-h period. Simulations are used to investigate the formation and the development of one of these cyclones over Niger in the lee of the Hoggar-Air Mountains. They show the development of the vortex to be associated with (1) strong horizontal shear and low-level convergence existing along the monsoon shearline and (2) enhanced northeasterly winds associated with orographic blocking of air masses from the Mediterranean Sea. The dry cyclone was apparent between 0700 and 1300 UTC in the simulation, and it was approximately 400 km wide and 1500 m deep. Potential vorticity in the center of vortex reached nearly 6 PVU at the end of the cyclogenesis period (1000 UTC). The role of the orography on cyclogenesis along the ITD was evaluated through model simulations without orography. The comparison of the characteristics of the vortex in the simulations with and without orography suggests that the orography plays a secondary but still important role in the formation of the cyclone. Orography and related flow splitting tend to create low-level jets in the lee of the Hoggar and Air mountains which, in turn, create conditions favorable for the onset of a better defined and more intense vortex in the ITD region. Moreover, orography blocking appears to favor the occurrence of a longer-lived cyclone. Furthermore, model results suggested that strong surface winds (~11 m s−1) enhanced by the intensification of the vortex led to the emission of dust mass fluxes as large as 3 ug m−2 s−1. The mobilized dust was mixed upward to a height of 4–5 km to be made available for long-range transport. This study suggests that the occurrence of dry vortices in the ITD region may contribute significantly to the total dust activity over West Africa during summer. The distribution of dust over the Sahara-Sahel may be affected over areas and at time scales much larger than those associated with the cyclone itself.
Summary
Three-dimensional mesoscale numerical simulations were performed over Niger in order to investigate dry cyclogenesis in the West African intertropical discontinuity (ITD) during the summer, when it is located over the Sahel. The implications of dry cyclogenesis on dust emission and transport over West Africa are also addressed using the model...
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Initial studies of an objective model to forecast achievable airspace flow program throughput from current and forecast weather information
December 11, 2008
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-343
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Summary
Airspace capacity constraints caused by adverse weather are a major driver for enhanced Traffic Flow Management (TFM) capabilities. One of the most prominent TFM initiatives introduced in recent years is the Airspace Flow Program (AFP). AFPs are used to plan and manage flights through airspace constrained by severe weather. An AFP is deployed using "strategic" (i.e., 4-6 hour) weather forecasts to determine AFP traffic throughput rates. These rates are set for hourly periods. However, as convective weather continuously evolves, the achievable en route airspace throughput can fluctuate significantly over periods as short as 15-30 minutes. Thus, without tactical AFP adjustments, inefficiencies in available airspace usage can arise, often resulting in increased air traffic delay. An analysis of AFP usage in 2007 was conducted in order to (1) better understand the relationship between AFP parameters and convective weather characteristics, and (2) assess the potential use of an objective model for forecasting tactical AFP throughput. An en route airway blockage-based algorithm, using tactical forecast information from the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS), has been developed in order to objectively forecast achievable flow rates through AFP boundaries during convective weather. A description of the model and preliminary model results are presented.
Summary
Airspace capacity constraints caused by adverse weather are a major driver for enhanced Traffic Flow Management (TFM) capabilities. One of the most prominent TFM initiatives introduced in recent years is the Airspace Flow Program (AFP). AFPs are used to plan and manage flights through airspace constrained by severe weather. An...
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Operational usage of the Route Availability Planning Tool during the 2007 convective weather season : executive summary
October 6, 2008
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-339-1
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Summary
The Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT) is an integrated weather/air traffic management decision support tool that has been designed to help traffic managers better anticipate weather impacts on jet routes and thus improve NY departure route usage efficiency. A field study was conducted in 2007 to evaluate RAPT technical performance at forecasting route blockage, to assess RAPT operational use during adverse weather, and to evaluate RAPT benefits. The operational test found that RAPT guidance was operationally sound and timely in many circumstances. RAPT applications included increased departure route throughput, more efficient reroute planning, and more timely decision coordination. Estimated annual NY departure delay savings attributed to RAPT in 2007 totaled 2,300 hours, with a cost savings of $7.5 M. The RAPT field study also sought to develop a better understanding of NY traffic flow decision-making during convective weather impacts since the RAPT benefi ts in 2007 were significantly limited by a number of factors other than direct weather impacts. Observations were made of the multi-facility departure management decision chain, the traffic management concerns and responsibilities at specific FAA facilities, and the procedures and pitfalls of the current process for capturing and disseminating key information such as route/fix availability and restrictions.
Summary
The Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT) is an integrated weather/air traffic management decision support tool that has been designed to help traffic managers better anticipate weather impacts on jet routes and thus improve NY departure route usage efficiency. A field study was conducted in 2007 to evaluate RAPT technical performance...
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Operational usage of the Route Availability Planning Tool during the 2007 convective weather season
October 6, 2008
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-339
Topic:
R&D area:
R&D group:
Summary
The Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT) is an integrated weather/air traffic management decision support tool that has been designed to help traffic managers better anticipate weather impacts on jet routes and thus improve NY departure route usage efficiency. A field study was conducted in 2007 to evaluate RAPT technical performance at forecasting route blockage, to assess RAPT operational use during adverse weather, and to evaluate RAPT benefits. The operational test found that RAPT guidance was operationally sound and timely in many circumstances. RAPT applications included increased departure route throughput, more efficient reroute planning, and more timely decision coordination. Estimated annual NY departure delay savings attributed to RAPT in 2007 totaled 2,300 hours, with a cost savings of $7.5 M. The RAPT field study also sought to develop a better understanding of NY traffic flow decision-making during convective weather impacts since the RAPT benefits in 2007 were significantly limited by a number of factors other than direct weather impacts. Observations were made of the multi-facility departure management decision chain, the traffic management concerns and responsibilities at specific FAA facilities, and the procedures and pitfalls of the current process for capturing and disseminating key information such as route/fix availability and restrictions.
Summary
The Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT) is an integrated weather/air traffic management decision support tool that has been designed to help traffic managers better anticipate weather impacts on jet routes and thus improve NY departure route usage efficiency. A field study was conducted in 2007 to evaluate RAPT technical performance...
READ MORE