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Benefits assessment methodology for an air traffic control tower advanced automation system

Published in:
ATIO 2010: 10th AIAA Aviation Technology Integration and Operations Conf., 13-15 September 2010.

Summary

This paper presents a benefits assessment methodology for an air traffic control tower advanced automation system called the Tower Flight Data Manager (TFDM), which is being considered for development by the FAA to support NextGen operations. The standard FAA benefits analysis methodology is described, together with how it has been tailored to the TFDM application to help inform the development process and the business case for system deployment. Parts of the methodology are illustrated through data analysis and modeling, and insights are presented to help prioritize TFDM capability development.
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Summary

This paper presents a benefits assessment methodology for an air traffic control tower advanced automation system called the Tower Flight Data Manager (TFDM), which is being considered for development by the FAA to support NextGen operations. The standard FAA benefits analysis methodology is described, together with how it has been...

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On estimating mid-air collision risk

Published in:
ATIO 2010: 10th AIAA Aviation Technology Integration and Operations Conf., 13-15 September 2010.

Summary

Many aviation safety studies involve estimating near mid-air collision (NMAC) rate. In the past, it has been assumed that the probability that an NMAC leads to a mid-air collision is 0.1, but there has not yet been a comprehensive study to serve as a basis for this estimate. This paper explains how to use existing encounter models, a flight simulation framework, three-dimensional aircraft wireframe models, and surveillance data to estimate mid-air collision risk. The results show that 0.1 is an overly conservative estimate and that the true rate is likely to be an order of magnitude lower.
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Summary

Many aviation safety studies involve estimating near mid-air collision (NMAC) rate. In the past, it has been assumed that the probability that an NMAC leads to a mid-air collision is 0.1, but there has not yet been a comprehensive study to serve as a basis for this estimate. This paper...

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Collision avoidance for unmanned aircraft using Markov Decision Processes

Summary

Before unmanned aircraft can fly safely in civil airspace, robust airborne collision avoidance systems must be developed. Instead of hand-crafting a collision avoidance algorithm for every combination of sensor and aircraft configuration, we investigate the automatic generation of collision avoidance algorithms given models of aircraft dynamics, sensor performance, and intruder behavior. By formulating the problem of collision avoidance as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) for sensors that provide precise localization of the intruder aircraft, or a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) for sensors that have positional uncertainty or limited field-of-view constraints, generic MDP/POMDP solvers can be used to generate avoidance strategies that optimize a cost function that balances flight-plan deviation with collision. Experimental results demonstrate the suitability of such an approach using four different sensor modalities and a parametric aircraft performance model.
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Summary

Before unmanned aircraft can fly safely in civil airspace, robust airborne collision avoidance systems must be developed. Instead of hand-crafting a collision avoidance algorithm for every combination of sensor and aircraft configuration, we investigate the automatic generation of collision avoidance algorithms given models of aircraft dynamics, sensor performance, and intruder...

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Improved Monte Carlo sampling for conflict probability estimation

Published in:
51st AIAA/ASME/AHS/ACS Structures, Structural Dynamics, and Materials Conf., 12-15 April 2010.

Summary

Probabilistic alerting systems for airborne collision avoidance often depend upon accurate estimates of the probability of conflict. Analytical, numerical approximation, and Monte Carlo methods have been applied to conflict probability estimation. The advantage of a Monte Carlo approach is the greater flexibility afforded in modeling the stochastic behavior of aircraft encounters, but typically many samples are required to provide an adequate conflict probability estimate. One approach to improve accuracy with fewer samples is to use importance sampling, where trajectories are sampled according to a proposal distribution that is different from the one specified by the model. This paper suggests several different sample proposal distributions and demonstrates how they result in significantly improved estimates.
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Summary

Probabilistic alerting systems for airborne collision avoidance often depend upon accurate estimates of the probability of conflict. Analytical, numerical approximation, and Monte Carlo methods have been applied to conflict probability estimation. The advantage of a Monte Carlo approach is the greater flexibility afforded in modeling the stochastic behavior of aircraft...

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Airspace encounter models for estimating collision risk

Published in:
J. Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, Vol. 33, No. 2, March-April 2010, pp. 487-499.

Summary

Airspace encounter models, providing a statistical representation of geometries and aircraft behavior during a close encounter, are required to estimate the safety and robustness of collision avoidance systems. Prior encounter models, developed to certify the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System, have been limited in their ability to capture important characteristics of encounters as revealed by recorded surveillance data, do not capture the current mix of aircraft types or noncooperative aircraft, and do not represent more recent airspace procedures. This paper describes a methodology for encounter model construction based on a Bayesian statistical framework connected to an extensive set of national radar data. In addition, this paper provides examples of using several such high-fidelity models to evaluate the safety of collision avoidance systems for manned and unmanned aircraft.
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Summary

Airspace encounter models, providing a statistical representation of geometries and aircraft behavior during a close encounter, are required to estimate the safety and robustness of collision avoidance systems. Prior encounter models, developed to certify the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System, have been limited in their ability to capture important...

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Model-based optimization of airborne collision avoidance logic

Summary

The Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) is designed to reduce the risk of mid-air collisions by providing resolution advisories to pilots. The current version of the collision avoidance logic was hand-crafted over the course of many years and contains many parameters that have been tuned to varying extents and heuristic rules whose justification has been lost. Further development of the TCAS system is required to make the system compatible with next generation air traffic control procedures and surveillance systems that will reduce separation between aircraft. This report presents a decision-theoretic approach to optimizing the TCAS logic using probabilistic models of aircraft behavior and a cost metric that balances the cost of alerting with the cost of collision. Such an approach ahs the potential for meeting or exceeding the current safety level while lowering the false alert rate and simplifing the process of re-optimizing the logic in response to changes in the airspace and sensor capabilities.
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Summary

The Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) is designed to reduce the risk of mid-air collisions by providing resolution advisories to pilots. The current version of the collision avoidance logic was hand-crafted over the course of many years and contains many parameters that have been tuned to varying extents...

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Classification of primary radar tracks using Gaussian mixture models

Published in:
IET Radar, Sonar Navig., Vol. 3, No. 6, December 2009.

Summary

Classification of primary surveillance radar tracks as either aircraft or non-aircraft is critical to a number of emerging applications, including airspace situational awareness and collision avoidance. Substantial research has focused on target classification of pre-processed radar surveillance data. Unfortunately, many non-aircraft tracks still pass through the clutter-reduction processing built into the aviation surveillance radars used by the Federal Aviation Administration. This paper demonstrates an approach to radar track classification that uses only post-processed position reports and does not require features that are typically only available during the pre-processing stage. Gaussian mixture models learned from recorded data are shown to perform well without the use of features that have been traditionally used for target classification, such as radar crosssection measurements.
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Summary

Classification of primary surveillance radar tracks as either aircraft or non-aircraft is critical to a number of emerging applications, including airspace situational awareness and collision avoidance. Substantial research has focused on target classification of pre-processed radar surveillance data. Unfortunately, many non-aircraft tracks still pass through the clutter-reduction processing built into...

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TCAS multiple threat encounter analysis

Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-359

Summary

The recent development of high-fidelity U.S. airspace encounter models at Lincoln Laboratory has motivated a simulation study of the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) multiple threat logic. We observed from archived radar data that while rarer than single-threat encounters, multiple threat encounters occur more frequently than originally expected. The multithreat logic has not been analyzed in the past using encounter models. To generate multi-threat encounters, this report extends the statistical techniques used to develop pairwise correlated encounters. We generated and simulated a large number of multi-threat encounters using the TCAS logic implemented in Lincoln Laboratory's Collision Avoidance System Safety Assessment Tool. Near mid-air collision (NMAC) count indicates how often close encounters are resolved, unresolved, or induced by TCAS. Change in vertical miss distance shows the effect of the additional threat on the vertical separation between the first two aircraft. Risk ratio measures how the probability of an NMAC changes when an aircraft is equipped with TCAS versus being unequipped. Study results indicate that in multi-threat encounters, the TCAS logic results in a more than twofold increase in unresolved NMACs and approximately five times more induced NMACs than one-on-one encounters. TCAS provides a safety benefit in multi-threat encounters by issuing resolution advisories that result in increased vertical separation between the equipped aircraft and the first intruder.
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Summary

The recent development of high-fidelity U.S. airspace encounter models at Lincoln Laboratory has motivated a simulation study of the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) multiple threat logic. We observed from archived radar data that while rarer than single-threat encounters, multiple threat encounters occur more frequently than originally expected...

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Evaluation of TCAS II Version 7.1 using the FAA Fast-Time Encounter Generator model [volume 1]

Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-346,I

Summary

This report documents the Lincoln Laboratory evaluation of the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System II (TCAS II) logic version 7.1. TCAS II is an airborne collision avoidance system required since 30 December 1993 by the FAA on all air carrier aircraft with more than 30 passenger seats operating in the U.S. airspace. Version 7.1 was created to correct two potential safety problems in earlier versions. The first change focuses on the sense reversal logic. The second change focuses on avoiding "wrong way" responses to Vertical Speed Limit or "Adjust Vertical Speed, Adjust" RAs. Lincoln Laboratory evaluated the logic by examining more than eight million simulated pairwise encounters, derived from actual tracks recorded in U.S. airspace. The main goals of the evaluation were: (1) to study the performance of the revised sense reversal logic for encounters where one pilot ignores the TCAS advisory; (2) to determine if the revised sense reversal logic has an adverse impact on encounters where both pilots follow the TCAS advisories; (3) to determine if the change from "Adjust Vertical Speed, Adjust" advisories to "Level Off, Level Off" advisories provides a safety benefit for TCAS. Three sets of encounters were examined in order to fulfill these goals: encounters where both aircraft are TCAS-equipped and both pilots follow the advisories; encounters where both aircraft are TCAS-equipped and one pilot does not follow the advisory; and encounters where only one aircraft is TCAS-equipped. A detailed analysis followed by a summary is provided for each set of encounters. An overall summary is given at the end of the report.
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Summary

This report documents the Lincoln Laboratory evaluation of the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System II (TCAS II) logic version 7.1. TCAS II is an airborne collision avoidance system required since 30 December 1993 by the FAA on all air carrier aircraft with more than 30 passenger seats operating in...

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Evaluation of TCAS II Version 7.1 using the FAA Fast-Time Encounter Generator model : appendix [volume 2]

Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-346,II

Summary

Appendix to Project Report ATC-346, Evaluation of TCAS II Version 7.1 Using the Fast-Time Encounter Generator Model, Volume 1.
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Summary

Appendix to Project Report ATC-346, Evaluation of TCAS II Version 7.1 Using the Fast-Time Encounter Generator Model, Volume 1.

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