Publications
Establishing wind information needs for four dimensional trajectory-based operations
June 26, 2012
Conference Paper
Published in:
1st Int. Conf. on Interdisciplinary Science for Innovative Air Traffic Management, ISIATM, 26 June 2012.
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Summary
Accurate wind information is of fundamental importance to the delivery of benefits from future air traffic concepts. A Wind Information Analysis Framework is described in this paper and its utility for assessing wind information needs for a four-dimensional trajectory based operations application is demonstrated.
Summary
Accurate wind information is of fundamental importance to the delivery of benefits from future air traffic concepts. A Wind Information Analysis Framework is described in this paper and its utility for assessing wind information needs for a four-dimensional trajectory based operations application is demonstrated.
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Towards the detection of aircraft icing conditions using operational dual-polarimetric radar
June 25, 2012
Conference Paper
Published in:
7th European Conf. on Radar in Meteorology and Hydrology, ERAD, 25-29 June 2012.
Summary
In anticipation of the dual-polarimetric upgrade to the National Weather Service operational radar network (WSR-88D) research is being conducted to utilize this extensive new data source for remote aircraft icing detection. The first challenge is to accurately locate the melting layer. A new image-processing-based algorithm is proposed and demonstrated. The next challenge is to use the dual-polarimetric data above the melting level to distinguish regions containing super-cooled liquid water, which constitutes an aviation icing hazard, from regions of pure ice and snow. It has been well documented that the S-band dual-polarimetric radar signatures at individual range gates of super-cooled liquid water and ice crystals overlap significantly, complicating the identification of icing conditions using individual radar measurements. Recently several investigators have found that the aggregate characteristics of dual-polarimetric radar measurements over regions on the order of several kilometers show distinguishing features between regions containing super-cooled liquid and those with ice only. In this study, the features found in the literature are evaluated, extended and combined using a fuzzy-logic framework to provide an icing threat likelihood. The results of this new algorithm are computed using data collected in Colorado from the Colorado State University CHILL radar and the National Center for Atmospheric Research S-Pol radar (collectively called FRONT – The Front Range Observational Testbed) collected in the winter of 2010/2011 in coordination with the NASA Icing Remote Sensing System (NIRSS) and compared to pilot reports on approach or departure from nearby airports. The preliminary results look encouraging and will be presented. The ultimate goal is to produce an end-to-end algorithm to produce a reliable icing threat product that can then be combined with existing icing detection systems to improve their performance.
Summary
In anticipation of the dual-polarimetric upgrade to the National Weather Service operational radar network (WSR-88D) research is being conducted to utilize this extensive new data source for remote aircraft icing detection. The first challenge is to accurately locate the melting layer. A new image-processing-based algorithm is proposed and demonstrated. The...
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NextGen surveillance and weather radar capability (NSWRC) siting analysis
May 22, 2012
Project Report
Published in:
Project Report ATC-391, MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Summary
As the current radars that perform weather and aircraft surveillance over the United States age, they must be sustained through service life extension programs or replaced. In the latter case, the radars can be replaced by multiple types of radars with different missions or they can be replaced by scalable multifunction phased array radars (MPARs). State-of-the-art active phased array systems have the potential to provide improved capabilities such as earlier detection and better characterization of hazardous weather phenomena, 3D tracking of noncooperative aircraft, better avoidance of unwanted clutter sources such as wind farms, and more graceful performance degradation with component failure. As the U.S. aviation community works toward realizing the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), achieving improved capabilities for aircraft and weather surveillance becomes critical, because stricter observation requirements are believed to be needed. Hence, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is considering the MPAR as a possible solution to their NextGen Surveillance and Weather Radar Capability (NSWRC). Cost is one hurdle to the deployment of a modern phased array radar network. One way of lowering the overall cost is to reduce the total number of radars. Because of the overlap in coverage provided by the current radar networks, a unified MPAR replacement network can potentially decrease the total number of radars needed to cover the same airspace. An earlier analysis conducted by MIT Lincoln Laboratory concluded that 510 legacy radars could be effectively replaced by 334 MPARs over the contiguous United States (CONUS). There was, however, some uncertainty whether the spatial resolution used in the terrain blockage calculations was fine enough to accurately depict radar coverage, and also if terminal area coverage was being adequately addressed. This study revisits the siting analysis using a much finer spatial resolution, expands the coverage domain to include all fifty states and U.S. territories, adds the Air Force long-range surveillance radars (FPSs) to the legacy pool, and allows scaling by number of faces per radar. The aim is to provide an estimate of the minimum number of MPARs needed to replace the existing radar coverage. We also provide an extensive statistical compilation of legacy versus MPAR coverage for various observational performance parameters.
Summary
As the current radars that perform weather and aircraft surveillance over the United States age, they must be sustained through service life extension programs or replaced. In the latter case, the radars can be replaced by multiple types of radars with different missions or they can be replaced by scalable...
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Evaluation of the Integrated Departure Route Planning (IDRP) Tool 2011 prototype
May 3, 2012
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-388
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Summary
The Integrated Departure Route Planning (IDRP) tool combines convective weather impact forecasts from the Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT) with departure demand forecasts from the MITRE tfmCore system to aid traffic managers in formulating plans to mitigate volume congestion in fair weather and during convective weather impacts. An initial prototype was deployed in the summer of 2010 for a very limited field evaluation. A second, more comprehensive field evaluation of the "Phase 2" IDRP prototype was performed in the summer of 2011. The key focus of IDRP is the planning and implementation of departure reroutes to avoid weather impacts and volume congestion on departure fixes and routes. This evaluation assesses three facets of the IDRP prototype critical to the successful realization of its concept of operations: 1. performance of weather impact forecasts from RAPT and departure demand forecasts from tfmCore, 2. effectiveness of reroute decisions, and 3. potential impacts on procedures and decision making based on observations of IDRP use in the field. The evaluation concludes with suggestions for future enhancements to improve the performance and realization of potential benefits in operational use of IDRP.
Summary
The Integrated Departure Route Planning (IDRP) tool combines convective weather impact forecasts from the Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT) with departure demand forecasts from the MITRE tfmCore system to aid traffic managers in formulating plans to mitigate volume congestion in fair weather and during convective weather impacts. An initial prototype...
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Estimation of New York departure fix capacities in fair and convective weather
January 23, 2012
Conference Paper
Published in:
3rd Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, 23 January 2012.
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Summary
When convective weather impacts the New York Metro airspace, traffic managers may employ several tactics to mitigate weather impacts and maintain manageable and efficient flow of traffic to and from the airports. These tactics, which include maneuvering individual flights through weather, merging and redirecting traffic flows to avoid storms, and rerouting traffic from blocked routes onto unimpacted or less-impacted routes, all affect the capacity of the affected airspace resources (departure fixes, routes, or gates). Furthermore, the location of the weather impacts can have a great influence on the amount of leeway that traffic managers have in applying these tactics. In New York, departure fixes, the gateways to en route airspace where departure traffic from several metroplex airports are merged onto en route airways, are particularly critical. When congestion (volume of traffic in excess of capacity) occurs near departure fixes as a result of weather impacts, traffic managers must resort to airborne holding or unplanned departure stops to quickly reduce traffic over the fix to manageable levels. Nonetheless, when convective weather impacts densely packed and busy metroplex airspaces, it is inevitable that traffic will need to use impacted departure fixes and routes to keep delays in check. For this reason, predictions of the weather-impacted capacity of critical airspace resources like departure fixes that are based in the reality of commonly used impact mitigation tactics, are needed to help traffic managers anticipate and avoid disruptive congestion at weather-impacted departure fixes. The Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT) is a departure management decision support tool that has been used in the New York operations since 2003. It predicts the weather impact on departure fixes and routes based on departure times. RAPT assigns a departure status (RED, YELLOW, or GREEN) to individual departure routes based on the departure time, the predicted severity of the convective weather that will impact the route, the likelihood that a pilot will deviate to avoid the weather along the route, and the operational sensitivity to deviations in the departure airspace that the route traverses. These blockages assist traffic managers in prompt route reopening of routes closed by convective weather impacts, as well as providing situational awareness for impeding impacts on routes. RAPT also identifies the location of weather impacts along the departure route. This paper presents an analysis of observed fair weather and convective weather impacted throughput on New York departure fixes. RAPT departure status and impact location are used to characterize the severity of departure fix weather impacts, and weather-impacted fix capacity ranges are estimated as a function of RAPT impacts. The use of traffic flow merging is identified, and weather impacted capacity ranges for commonly used merged flows are also estimated.
Summary
When convective weather impacts the New York Metro airspace, traffic managers may employ several tactics to mitigate weather impacts and maintain manageable and efficient flow of traffic to and from the airports. These tactics, which include maneuvering individual flights through weather, merging and redirecting traffic flows to avoid storms, and...
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A tree-based ensemble method of the prediction and uncertainty quantification of aircraft landing times
January 22, 2012
Conference Paper
Published in:
10th Conf. on Artificial and Computational Intelligence, 22 January 2012.
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Summary
Accurate aircraft landing time predictions provide situational awareness for air traffic controllers, enable decision support algorithms and gate management planning. This paper presents a new approach for estimation of landing times using a tree-based ensemble method, namely Quantile Regression Forests. This method is suitable for real-time applications, provides robust and accurate predictions of landing times, and yields prediction intervals for individual flights, which provide a natural way of quantifying uncertainty. The approach was tested for arrivals at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport over a range of days with a variety of operational conditions.
Summary
Accurate aircraft landing time predictions provide situational awareness for air traffic controllers, enable decision support algorithms and gate management planning. This paper presents a new approach for estimation of landing times using a tree-based ensemble method, namely Quantile Regression Forests. This method is suitable for real-time applications, provides robust and...
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Evaluation of Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA) 0-8 hour convective weather forecast using the airspace flow program blockage-based capacity forecast ("The Matrix")
November 9, 2011
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-385
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Summary
The CoSPA 0-8 hour convective weather forecast provides deterministic forecast products that can be used by strategic traffic management planners, and can be readily translated into forecasts of aviation capacity impacts for use in automated decision support tools. An operational CoSPA prototype was evaluated at several FAA Air Traffic Control facilities during the summer of 2010. As part of this evaluation, CoSPA forecasts were translated into forecasts of capacity impacts on traffic flows through two Flow Constrained Areas (FCAA05 and FCAA08) commonly used to control arrival traffic into the highly congested northeastern United States. This report describes an objective and operationally relevant evaluation of the accurancy of CoSPA-based forecasts of FCA capacity.
Summary
The CoSPA 0-8 hour convective weather forecast provides deterministic forecast products that can be used by strategic traffic management planners, and can be readily translated into forecasts of aviation capacity impacts for use in automated decision support tools. An operational CoSPA prototype was evaluated at several FAA Air Traffic Control...
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Estimating the likelihood of success in departure management strategies during convective weather
October 16, 2011
Conference Paper
Published in:
Proc. 30th IEEE/AIAA Digital Avionics Systems Conference, DASC, 16-20 October 2011, pp. 6D4.
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The presence of convective weather (thunderstorms) in terminal and nearby en route airspace of major metroplex areas can have significant impacts on departure operations. Traffic on departure routes impacted by convective weather may be constrained by miles-in-trail (MIT) restrictions, to allow controllers the time needed to maneuver individual flights around thunderstorms that pilots wish to avoid. When the workload required to manage traffic flows becomes too great, departure routes may be closed. Departures still on the ground that are filed on closed or restricted routes may face significant delays as they wait for clearance on their filed route, or for a viable reroute to be implemented. The solution proposed in concepts such as the Integrated Departure Route Planning tool (IDRP) [1] is the use of weather and departure demand forecasts to plan and implement reroutes to avoid weather and volume congestion proactively, well in advance of route restrictions or closures.
Summary
The presence of convective weather (thunderstorms) in terminal and nearby en route airspace of major metroplex areas can have significant impacts on departure operations. Traffic on departure routes impacted by convective weather may be constrained by miles-in-trail (MIT) restrictions, to allow controllers the time needed to maneuver individual flights around...
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Initial validation of a convective weather avoidance model (CWAM) in departure airspace
October 16, 2011
Conference Paper
Published in:
DASC 2011, 30th IEEE/AIAA Digital Avionics Systems Conference, 16-20 October 2011, pp. 3A2.
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The Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) translates gridded, deterministic weather observations and forecasts into Weather Avoidance Fields (WAF). The WAF gives the probability, at each point in the grid, that a pilot will choose to deviate around convective weather at that location. CWAM have been developed and validated for en route, high altitude, level flight, low altitude level flight, and for descending arrivals. A heuristic CWAM for departures was also developed and deployed as part of the Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT) prototype development in New York and Chicago. This paper presents an evaluation of the departure CWAM that is currently deployed as part of RAPT, based on an analysis of departure traffic in the Chicago terminal area during convective weather events.
Summary
The Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) translates gridded, deterministic weather observations and forecasts into Weather Avoidance Fields (WAF). The WAF gives the probability, at each point in the grid, that a pilot will choose to deviate around convective weather at that location. CWAM have been developed and validated for en...
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The Tower Flight Data Manager prototype system
October 16, 2011
Conference Paper
Published in:
DASC 2011, 30th IEEE/AIAA Digital Avionics Systems Conference, 16-20 October 2011, pp. 2C5.
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The Tower Flight Data Manager (TFDM) will serve as the next generation air traffic control tower automation platform for surface and local airspace operations. TFDM provides three primary enhancements over current systems: consolidation of diverse data and information sources into a single platform; electronic data exchange, including flight data entries, within and outside the tower cab; and a suite of decision support capabilities leveraging TFDM's access to external data sources and systems. This paper describes a TFDM prototype system that includes integrated surveillance, flight data, and decision support display components. Enhancements in airport configuration management, runway assignment, taxi routing, sequencing and scheduling, and departure route assurance are expected to yield significant benefits in delay reduction, fuel savings, additional capacity, improved access, enhanced safety, and reduced environmental impact. Data are provided on system performance and air traffic controller acceptance from simulation studies and a preliminary field demonstration at Dallas / Ft. Worth International Airport.
Summary
The Tower Flight Data Manager (TFDM) will serve as the next generation air traffic control tower automation platform for surface and local airspace operations. TFDM provides three primary enhancements over current systems: consolidation of diverse data and information sources into a single platform; electronic data exchange, including flight data entries...
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