Publications
Wind-shear system cost benefit analysis update
May 13, 2009
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-341
Summary
A series of fatal commercial aviation accidents in the 1970s led to the development of systems and strategies to protect against wind shear. The Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), Low Level Wind Shear Alert System (LLWAS), Weather Systems Processor (WSP) for Airport Surveillance Radars (ASR-9), pilot training and on-board wind shear detection equipment are all key protection components. While these systems have been highly effective, there are substantial costs associated with maintaining and operating ground-based systems. In addition, while over 85% of all major air carrier operations occur at airports protected by one of these ground-based wind-shear systems, the vast majority of smaller operations remain largely unprotected. This report assesses the technical and operational benefits of current and potential alternative ground-based systems as mitigations for the low-altitude wind-shear hazard. System performance and benefits for all of the current TDWR (46), ASR-9 WSP (35), and LLWAS (40) protected airports are examined, along with 40 currently unprotected airports. We considered in detail several alternatives and/or combinations for existing ground-based systems. These included the option to use data from current WSR-88D (or NEXRAD) and two potential future sensor deployments: (1) a commercially built pulsed-Doppler Lidar and (2) an X-band commercial Doppler weather radar. Wind-shear exposure estimates and simulation models for each wind shear protection component were developed for each site in order to accurately comare all alternatives. For the period 2010-2032, the current combination of wind-shear protection systems reduces teh $3.0 billion unprotected NAS overall wind-shear safety exposure to just $160 million over the entire study period. Overall, tehre were few alternatives that resulted in higher benefits than the TDWR, TDWR-LLWAS, and WSP configurations that currently exist at 81 airports. However, the cheaper operating costs of NEXRAD make it a potential alternative especially at LLWAS and non-wind-shear protected sites.
Summary
A series of fatal commercial aviation accidents in the 1970s led to the development of systems and strategies to protect against wind shear. The Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), Low Level Wind Shear Alert System (LLWAS), Weather Systems Processor (WSP) for Airport Surveillance Radars (ASR-9), pilot training and on-board wind...
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Progress of Multifunction Phased Array Radar (MPAR) program
January 14, 2009
Conference Paper
Published in:
89th AMS Annual Conf., 11-15 January 2009.
Topic:
R&D area:
R&D group:
Summary
This paper will discuss the progress the Multi-function Phased Array Radar (MPAR) research program has made over the last 18 months as well as insight into the program strategy for moving forward. Current research activities include evaluating the impact of MPAR's faster scanning rates to aviation weather algorithms (e.g., how it will help in predicting storm growth and decay) and exploring dual polarization for phased array radars. Additionally, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has expanded the MPAR multi-agency partnership and is sponsoring research into the mitigation of wind-farm interference on weather sensing. Significant research in semi-conductor technology and advances in transmit/receive module design and phased array architectures are beginning to create a pathway towards system affordability. The MPAR program plan calls for a technology demonstration phase followed by the initiation of a prototype development effort within the next five years. This paper will provide the updates on these and other program activities.
Summary
This paper will discuss the progress the Multi-function Phased Array Radar (MPAR) research program has made over the last 18 months as well as insight into the program strategy for moving forward. Current research activities include evaluating the impact of MPAR's faster scanning rates to aviation weather algorithms (e.g., how...
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Detection probability modeling for airport wind-shear sensors
September 15, 2008
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-340
Summary
An objective wind-shear detection probability estimation model is developed for radar, lidar, and sensor combinations. The model includes effects of system sensitivity, site-specific wind-shear, clutter, and terrain blockage characteristics, range-aliased obscuration statistics, antenna beam filling and attenuation, and signal processing differences which allow a sensor- and site-specific performance analysis of deployed and future systems. A total of 161 sites are analyzed for the study, consisting of airports currently serviced by the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) (46), Airport Surveillance Radar Weather Systems Processor (ASR-9 WSP) (35), Low Altitude Wind Shear Alert System-Relocation/Sustainment (LLWAS-RS) (40), and no wind-shear detection system (40). Sensors considered are the TDWR, WSP, LLWAS, Weather Surveillance Radar 1988-Doppler (WSR-88D, commonly known as NEXRAD), adn the Lockheed Martin Coherent Technologies (LMCT) Doppler lidar and proposed x-band radar. [not complete]
Summary
An objective wind-shear detection probability estimation model is developed for radar, lidar, and sensor combinations. The model includes effects of system sensitivity, site-specific wind-shear, clutter, and terrain blockage characteristics, range-aliased obscuration statistics, antenna beam filling and attenuation, and signal processing differences which allow a sensor- and site-specific performance analysis of...
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Comparative analysis of terminal wind-shear detection systems
January 20, 2008
Conference Paper
Published in:
13th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, ARAM, 20-24 January 2008.
Topic:
R&D area:
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Summary
Low-level wind shear, especially a microburst, is very hazardous to aircraft departing or approaching an airport. The danger became especially clear in a series of fatal commercial airliner accidents in the 1970s and 1980s at U.S. airports. In response, the Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) developed and deployed three ground-based low-altitude wind-shear detection systems: the Low Altitude Wind Shear Alert System (LLWAS) (Wilson and Gramzow 1991), the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) (Michelson et al. 1990), and the Airport Surveillance Radar Weather Systems Processor (ASR-9 WSP) (Weber and Stone 1995). Since the deployment of these sensors, commercial aircraft wind-shear accidents have dropped to near zero in the U.S. This dramatic decrease in accidents caused by wind shear appears to confirm the safety benefits provided by these detection systems. In addition, the broad area measurement capability of the TDWR and WSP provides ancillary delay reduction benefits, for example, by forecasting airport wind shifts that may require runway reconfiguration. The current deployment strategy for these various windshear detection systems is justified by an earlier integrated wind-shear systems cost-benefit analysis (Martin Marietta 1994). Since that time, conditions in the national airspace system (NAS) have evolved, such as the installation of onboard predictive wind-shear detection systems in an increasing number of aircraft, improved pilot training for wind-shear hazard identification, avoidance, and recovery, and further integration of observed wind-shear data into terminal weather systems. Given the tight fiscal environment at the FAA in recent years, the cost of maintaining the wind-shear detection systems has also become an issue. All systems require periodic service life extension programs (SLEPs). In light of these developments, the FAA has tasked MIT Lincoln Laboratory to provide an updated cost-benefit study on their terminal wind-shear detection systems. One of the key factors in estimating the benefits of a terminal wind-shear detection system is its performance. Thus, it is necessary to quantify the wind-shear detection probability for each sensor, preferably on an airport-by-airport basis. To consider sensors that are not yet deployed, a model must be developed that takes into account the various effects that factor into the detection probability. We have developed such a model. The focus of this paper is on this model and the results obtained with it.
Summary
Low-level wind shear, especially a microburst, is very hazardous to aircraft departing or approaching an airport. The danger became especially clear in a series of fatal commercial airliner accidents in the 1970s and 1980s at U.S. airports. In response, the Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) developed and deployed three ground-based low-altitude...
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The next-generation multimission U.S. surveillance radar network
November 1, 2007
Journal Article
Published in:
Bull. American Meteorological Society, Vol. 88, No. 11, November 2007, pp. 1739-1751.
Summary
Current U.S. weather and aircraft surveillance radar networks vary in age from 10 to more than 40 years. Ongoing sustainment and upgrade programs can keep these operating in the near to mid-term, but the responsible agencies National Weather Service (NWS), Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the Departments of Defense (DoD) and Homeland Security (DHS) recognize that large-scale replacement activities must begin during the next decade. The National Weather Radar Testbed (NWRT) in Norman, Oklahoma, is a multiagency project demonstrating operational weather measurements capability enhancements that could be realized using electronically steered phased-array radars as a replacement for the current Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D). FAA support for the NWRT and related efforts address air traffic control (ATC) and homeland defense surveillance missions that could be simultaneously accomplished using the agile-beam capability of a phased array weather radar network. In this paper, we discuss technology issues, operational considerations, and cost trades associated with the concept of replacing current national surveillance radars with a single network of multimission phased array radars (MPAR). We begin by describing the current U.S. national weather and aircraft surveillance radar networks and their technical parameters. The airspace coverage and surveillance capabilities of these existing radars provide a starting point for defining requirements for the next-generation airspace surveillance system. We next describe a conceptual MPAR high-level system design and our initial development and testing of critical subsystems. This work, in turn, has provided a solid basis for estimating MPAR costs for comparison with existing, mechanically scanned operational surveillance radars. To assess the numbers of MPARs that would need to be procured, we present a conceptual MPAR network configuration that duplicates airspace coverage provided by current operational radars. Finally, we discuss how the improved surveillance capabilities of MPAR could be utilized to more effectively meet the weather and aircraft surveillance needs of U.S. civil and military agencies.
Summary
Current U.S. weather and aircraft surveillance radar networks vary in age from 10 to more than 40 years. Ongoing sustainment and upgrade programs can keep these operating in the near to mid-term, but the responsible agencies National Weather Service (NWS), Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the Departments of Defense (DoD)...
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Technical assessment of the impact of decommissioning the TDWR on terminal weather services
May 23, 2007
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-331
Summary
Details of a technical study that was part of a larger investigation assessing terminal weather services impacts of decommissioning the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) are presented. Effects on two key areas for safety and delay-reduction benefits are examined: low-altitude wind shear visibility and the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) Terminals Winds (TWINS) product. It is concluded that the information conted provided by the TDWR cannot, in general, be effectively replaced by other candidate radar systems such as the Airport Surveillance Radar (ASR-9) equipped with a Weather Systems Processor (WSP) or the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD).
Summary
Details of a technical study that was part of a larger investigation assessing terminal weather services impacts of decommissioning the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) are presented. Effects on two key areas for safety and delay-reduction benefits are examined: low-altitude wind shear visibility and the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS)...
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Analysis of operational alternatives to the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR)
February 26, 2007
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-332
Summary
Possible alternatives to the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) are assessed. We consider both the low altitude wind shear detection service provided by TDWR and its role in reducing weather-related airport delays through its input to the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS). Airborne predictive wind shear (PWS) radars do not provide the broad area situational awareness needed to proactively reroute aircraft away from the affected runways. We considered in detail the alternative of using the ASR-9 Weather Systems Processor (WSP) and NEXRAD in lieu of TDWR. An objective metric for wind shear detection capability was calculated for each of these radars at all TDWR equipped airports. TDWR was uniformly superior by this metric, and at a number of the airports, the ASR-9/NEXRAD alternative scored so low as to raise questions whether it would be operationally acceptable. To assess airport weather delay reduction impact, we compared the accuracy of the high-benefit ITWS "Terminal Winds" product with and without TDWR input. Removal of the TDWR data would have increased the mean estimate error by a factor of 3 near the surface.
Summary
Possible alternatives to the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) are assessed. We consider both the low altitude wind shear detection service provided by TDWR and its role in reducing weather-related airport delays through its input to the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS). Airborne predictive wind shear (PWS) radars do not...
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Multifunction phased array radar: technical synopsis, cost implications, and operational capabilities
January 14, 2007
Conference Paper
Published in:
87th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting, 14-18 January 2007.
Topic:
R&D area:
Summary
Current U.S. weather and aircraft surveillance radar networks vary in age from 10 to more than 40 years. Ongoing sustainment and upgrade programs can keep these operating in the near to mid term, but the responsible agencies (FAA, NWS and DoD/DHS) recognize that large-scale replacement activities must begin during the next decade. In addition, these agencies are re-evaluating their operational requirements for radar surveillance. FAA has announced that next generation air traffic control (ATC) will be based on Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast (ADS-B) (Scardina, 2002) rather than current primary and secondary radars. ADS-B, however, requires verification and back-up services which could be provided by retaining or replacing primary ATC radars.
Summary
Current U.S. weather and aircraft surveillance radar networks vary in age from 10 to more than 40 years. Ongoing sustainment and upgrade programs can keep these operating in the near to mid term, but the responsible agencies (FAA, NWS and DoD/DHS) recognize that large-scale replacement activities must begin during the...
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ASR-9 refractivity measurements using ground targets
November 13, 2006
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-328
Summary
Weather radars rely on the presence of radiowave scattering entities such as hydrometeors and insects to sense the dynamic evolution of the atmosphere. Under clear-air, low-reflectivity conditions, when no such "visible" tracers are present, air mass boundaries such as the outflow edge of a dry microburst may go undetected. Recently, a radar data processing technique was developed to estimate the near-ground atmospheric refractivity field using ground targets. Refractivity is dependent on the moist thermodynamic variables of the atmosphere and, thus, can be used to detect air mass changes and boundaries. In this study, we apply this technique for the first time to Airport Surveillance Radar-9 (ASR-9) Weather Systems Processor (WSP) data. Comparisons with measurements from a meteorological station show good consistency. The potential exists for improving the capability of the WSP to detect low-reflectivity wind-shear phenomena by adding interest information provided by the estimated refractivity field. Adequate computational power is the sole requirement for implementing this scheme; aside from that, no alteration or addition is necessary to the ASR-9 hardware. Its primary weakness is the sensitivity to vertical variation in refractivity and variance of target height. It also has a limited range of coverage (~20 km), but that is acceptable for terminal-area coverage. Further testing is needed during more appropriate meteorological conditions and at other sites to prove that dry wind-shear events can really be detected in the derived refractivity field by this class of radar, and that the technique is robust under various topographical settings.
Summary
Weather radars rely on the presence of radiowave scattering entities such as hydrometeors and insects to sense the dynamic evolution of the atmosphere. Under clear-air, low-reflectivity conditions, when no such "visible" tracers are present, air mass boundaries such as the outflow edge of a dry microburst may go undetected. Recently...
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Multifunction phased array radar pulse compression limits
April 25, 2006
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-327
Summary
An active phased array radar with distributed low-peak-power transmit modules requires pulse compression to provide high sensitivity and fine range resolution. A long transmitted pulse, however, has accompanying problems such as a near-range blind zone for the transmitting channel and a loss of other gate data (dead gates) in other channels for a multichannel system. In this report the trade-off between the benefits and costs of pulse compression (lengthening) for multifunction phased array radars (MPARs) are analyzed. Specific results are presented for a three-channel MPAR and a two-channel terminal-area MPAR (TMPAR) that have been proposed as replacement systems for current U.S. civil-sector aircraft anad weather surveillance radar systems. The recommended maximum compression ratio is 130 ofr the MPAR and 80 for the TMPAR. The results are independent of radar peak power and antenna gain, and represent upper bounds. Acutal pulse compression ratios that would be employed are likely to be somewhat less tha these values, based on fulfilling specific sensitivity and scan-time requirements with specific radar physical parameters.
Summary
An active phased array radar with distributed low-peak-power transmit modules requires pulse compression to provide high sensitivity and fine range resolution. A long transmitted pulse, however, has accompanying problems such as a near-range blind zone for the transmitting channel and a loss of other gate data (dead gates) in other...
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