Publications
Applications of a macroscopic model for en route sector capacity
August 18, 2008
Conference Paper
Published in:
AIAA Guidance, Navigation and Control Conf. and Exhibit, 18-21 August 2008.
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Summary
Airspace capacity estimates are important both for airspace design and for operational air traffic management. Considerable effort has gone into understanding the complexity factors that reduce sector capacity by increasing controller workload. Yet no analytical means is available for accurately estimating the maximum capacity of an en route sector. The Monitor Alert Parameter (MAP) values that determine the operational traffic limit of en route sectors in the United States account only for workload from inter-sector coordination tasks. We propose a more complete sector capacity model that also accounts for workload from conflict avoidance and recurring tasks. We use mean closing speeds and airspace separation standards to estimate aircraft conflict rates. We estimate the mean controller service times for all three task types by fitting the model against observed peak traffic counts for hundreds of en route airspace volumes in the Northeastern United States. This macroscopic approach provides numerical capacity predictions that closely bound peak observed traffic densities for those airspace volumes. This paper reviews recent efforts to improve the accuracy of the bound by replacing certain global parameters with measured data from individual sectors. It also compares the model capacity with MAP values for sectors in the New York Center. It concludes by illustrating the use of the model to predict the capacity benefits of proposed technological and operational improvements to the air traffic management system.
Summary
Airspace capacity estimates are important both for airspace design and for operational air traffic management. Considerable effort has gone into understanding the complexity factors that reduce sector capacity by increasing controller workload. Yet no analytical means is available for accurately estimating the maximum capacity of an en route sector. The...
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Macroscopic workload model for estimating en route sector capacity
July 2, 2007
Conference Paper
Published in:
USA/Europe ATM Seminar, 2-5 July 2007.
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Summary
Under ideal weather conditions, each en route sector in an air traffic management (ATM) system has a certain maximum operational traffic density that its controller team can safely handle with nominal traffic flow. We call this the design capacity of the sector. Bad weather and altered flow often reduce sector capacity by increasing controller workload. We refer to sector capacity that is reduced by such conditions as dynamic capacity. When operational conditions cause workload to exceed the capability of a sector's controllers, air traffic managers can respond either by reducing demand or by increasing design capacity. Reducing demand can increase aircraft operating costs and impose delays. Increasing design capacity is usually accomplished by assigning more control resources to the airspace. This increases the cost of ATM. To ensure full utilization of the dynamic capacity and efficient use of the workforce, it is important to accurately characterize the capacity of each sector. Airspace designers often estimate sector capacity using microscopic workload simulations that model each task imposed by each aircraft. However, the complexities of those detailed models limit their real-time operational use, particularly in situations in which sector volumes or flow directions must adapt to changing conditions. To represent design capacity operationally in the United States, traffic flow managers define an acceptable peak traffic count for each sector based on practical experience. These subjective thresholds-while usable in decision-making-do not always reflect the complexity and geometry of the sectors, nor the direction of the traffic flow. We have developed a general macroscopic workload model to quantify the workload impact of traffic density, sector geometry, flow direction, and air-to-air conflict rates. This model provides an objective basis for estimating design capacity. Unlike simulation models, this analytical approach easily extrapolates to new conditions and allows parameter validation by fitting to observed sector traffic counts. The model quantifies coordination and conflict workload as well as observed relationships between sector volume and controller efficiency. The model can support real-time prediction of changes in design capacity when traffic is diverted from nominal routes. It can be used to estimate residual airspace capacity when weather partially blocks a sector. Its ability to identify dominant manual workload factors can also help define the benefits and effectiveness of alternative concepts for automating labor-intensive tasks.
Summary
Under ideal weather conditions, each en route sector in an air traffic management (ATM) system has a certain maximum operational traffic density that its controller team can safely handle with nominal traffic flow. We call this the design capacity of the sector. Bad weather and altered flow often reduce sector...
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Required surveillance performance accuracy to support 3-mile and 5-mile separation in the National Airspace System
November 1, 2006
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-323
Summary
The Federal Aviation Administration is modernizing the Air Traffic Control system to improve flight efficiency, to increase capacity, to reduce flight delays, and to control operating costs as the demand for air travel continues to grow. Promising new surveillance technologies such as Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast, (ADS-B), multisensor track fusion, and multifunction phased array radar offer the potential for increased efficiency in the National Airspace System (NAS). However, the introduction of these surveillance systems into the NAS is hampered because the FAA Order containing the surveillance requirements to support separation services assumes surveillance is provided by radar technology. The requirements are stated in terms that don't apply to new surveillance technologies. In order to take advantage of new surveillance technologies, the surveillance requirements to support separation services in the NAS must be articulated from a performance perspective that is not technology specific. This will allow the FAA to make the investment and performance trade-off analysis necessary to support the introduction of new surveillance technologies. [not complete]
Summary
The Federal Aviation Administration is modernizing the Air Traffic Control system to improve flight efficiency, to increase capacity, to reduce flight delays, and to control operating costs as the demand for air travel continues to grow. Promising new surveillance technologies such as Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast, (ADS-B), multisensor track fusion...
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Safety analysis for advanced separatation concepts
January 7, 2006
Journal Article
Published in:
Air Traffic Control Q., Vol. 14, No. 1, 2006, pp. 5-24.
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Summary
Advanced separation assurance concepts involving higher degrees of automation must meet the challenge of maintaining safety in the presence of inevitable subsystem faults, including the complete failure of the supporting automation infrastructure. This paper examines the types of design features and safeguards that might be used to preserve safety in a highly automated environment. The Advanced Airspace Concept (AAC) being developed by NASA is used as the basis for a fault-tree analysis. Multiple layers of protection, with carefully specified fault management strategies, appear to be important to achieving the desired level of safety.
Summary
Advanced separation assurance concepts involving higher degrees of automation must meet the challenge of maintaining safety in the presence of inevitable subsystem faults, including the complete failure of the supporting automation infrastructure. This paper examines the types of design features and safeguards that might be used to preserve safety in...
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Improving air traffic management during thunderstorms
October 30, 2005
Conference Paper
Published in:
24th AIAA/IEEE Digital Avionics Systems Conf., 30 October - 3 November 2005, pp. 3.D.2-1 - 3.D.2-13.
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This paper discusses inter-related studies and development activities that address the significant challenges of implementing Air Traffic Management initiatives in airspace impacted by thunderstorms. We briefly describe current thrusts that will improve the quality and precision of thunderstorm forecasts, work in progress to convert these forecasts into estimates of future airspace capacity, and an initiative to develop a robust ATM optimization model based on future capacity estimates with associated uncertainty bounds. We conclude with a discussion of the thunderstorm ATM problem in the context of future advanced airspace management concepts.
Summary
This paper discusses inter-related studies and development activities that address the significant challenges of implementing Air Traffic Management initiatives in airspace impacted by thunderstorms. We briefly describe current thrusts that will improve the quality and precision of thunderstorm forecasts, work in progress to convert these forecasts into estimates of future...
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Safety analysis for advanced separation concepts
June 27, 2005
Conference Paper
Published in:
USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Seminar, 27-30 June 2005.
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Summary
Aviation planners have called for increasing the capacity of the air transportation system by factors of two or three over the next 20 years. The inherent spatial capacity of en route airspace appears able to accommodate such traffic densities. But controller workload presents a formidable obstacle to achieving such goals. New approaches to providing separation assurance are being investigated to overcome workload limitations and allow airspace capacity to be fully utilized. One approach is to employ computer automation as the basis for separation-assurance task. This would permit traffic densities that exceed the level at which human cognition and decision-making can assure separation. One of the challenges that must be faced involves the ability of such highly automated systems to maintain safety in the presence of inevitable subsystem faults, including the complete failure of the supporting computer system. Traffic density and flow complexity will make it impossible for human service providers to safely reinitiate manual control in the event of computer failure, so the automated system must have inherent fail-soft features. This paper presents a preliminary analysis of the ability of a highly automated separation assurance system to tolerate general types of faults such as nonconformance and computer outages. Safety-related design features are defined using the Advanced Airspace Concept (AAC) as the base architecture. Special attention is given to the impact of a severe failure in which all computer support is terminated within a defined region. The growth and decay of risk during an outage is evaluated using fault tree methods that integrate risk over time. It is shown that when a conflict free plan covers the region of the outage, this plan can be used to safely transition aircraft to regions where service can still be provided.
Summary
Aviation planners have called for increasing the capacity of the air transportation system by factors of two or three over the next 20 years. The inherent spatial capacity of en route airspace appears able to accommodate such traffic densities. But controller workload presents a formidable obstacle to achieving such goals...
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Remotely piloted vehicles in civil airspace: requirements and analysis methods for the traffic alert and collision avoidance system (TCAS) and see-and-avoid systems
October 24, 2004
Conference Paper
Published in:
Proc. of the 23rd Digital Avionics Systems Conf., DASC, Vol. 2, 24-28 October 2004, pp. 12.D.1-1 - 12.D.1.14.
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Summary
The integration of Remotely Piloted Vehicles (RF'Vs) into civil airspace will require new methods of ensuring aircraft separation. This paper discusses issues affecting requirements for RPV traffic avoidance systems and for performing the safety evaluations that will be necessary to certify such systems. The paper outlines current ways in which traffic avoidance is assured depending on the type of airspace and type of traffic that is encountered. Alternative methods for RPVs to perform traffic avoidance are discussed, including the potential use of new see-and-avoid sensors or the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS). Finally, the paper outlines an established safety evaluation process that can be adapted to assure regulatory authorities that RPVs meet level of safety requirements.
Summary
The integration of Remotely Piloted Vehicles (RF'Vs) into civil airspace will require new methods of ensuring aircraft separation. This paper discusses issues affecting requirements for RPV traffic avoidance systems and for performing the safety evaluations that will be necessary to certify such systems. The paper outlines current ways in which...
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Safety analysis process for the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) and see-and-avoid systems on remotely piloted vehicles
September 20, 2004
Conference Paper
Published in:
AIAA 3rd Unmanned-Unlimited Technical Conf., 20-23 September 2004, pp. 1-13.
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Summary
The integration of Remotely Piloted Vehicles (RPVs) into civil airspace will require new methods of ensuring traffic avoidance. This paper discusses issues affecting requirements for RPV traffic avoidance systems and describes the safety evaluation process that the international community has deemed necessary to certify such systems. Alternative methods for RPVs to perform traffic avoidance are discussed, including the potential use of new see-and- avoid sensors or the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS). Concerns that must be addressed to allow the use of TCAS on RPVs are presented. The paper then details the safety evaluation process that is being implemented to evaluate the safety of TCAS on Global Hawk. The same evaluation process can be extended to other RPVs and traffic avoidance systems for which thorough safety analyses will also be required.
Summary
The integration of Remotely Piloted Vehicles (RPVs) into civil airspace will require new methods of ensuring traffic avoidance. This paper discusses issues affecting requirements for RPV traffic avoidance systems and describes the safety evaluation process that the international community has deemed necessary to certify such systems. Alternative methods for RPVs...
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Assessing delay benefits of the Final Approach Spacing Tool (FAST)
August 6, 2001
Conference Paper
Published in:
AIAA Guidance, Navigation and control Conf., Vol. 3, 6-9 August 2001, pp. 1851-1859.
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Summary
Air traffic delay grows each year. NASA is developing the Final Approach Spacing Tool (FAST) to help reduce airport arrival delays. FAST is intended to increase throughput and reduce delays. Analysis and field trials have suggested that FAST can help controllers increase arrival throughput on busy runways by several aircraft per hour. Published simulation studies have predicted that delay reductions from such throughput increases would save several hundred million dollars annually. However, these predictions disagree on delay savings for some airports and omit other airports of interest. Their predicted delay savings for some airports are higher than actual reported delays for those airports. They do not consider hazardous weather disruptions to arrival routes, and they do not address downstream delays caused by schedule disruption. This paper focuses on simple statistical and analytical measures of delay to resolve these problems. It develops a rule for ranking benefits and compares delay reduction predictions against actual reported delays. It relates delay to ceiling and visibility and thunderstorms. It examines the correlation of delay between airports and estimates the impact of downstream delay on FAST benefits.
Summary
Air traffic delay grows each year. NASA is developing the Final Approach Spacing Tool (FAST) to help reduce airport arrival delays. FAST is intended to increase throughput and reduce delays. Analysis and field trials have suggested that FAST can help controllers increase arrival throughput on busy runways by several aircraft...
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Radar-based analysis of the efficiency of runway use
August 6, 2001
Conference Paper
Published in:
AIAA Guidance, Navigation & Control Conference, Montreal, Quebec, 6-9 August, 2001, pp. 1-17.
Summary
The air transportation system faces a challenge in accommodating growing air traffic despite an inability to build new runways at most major airports. One approach to alleviating congestion is to find ways of using each available runway to the maximum extent possible without violating safety standards. Some decision support tools, such as the Final Approach Spacing Tool (FAST) that is a part of the Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS), are specifically targeted toward achieving greater runway throughput by reducing the average landing time interval (LTI) between arrivals at a given runway. In order to understand the potential benefits of such innovations, techniques for detecting spacing inefficiencies and estimating potential throughput improvements are needed. This paper demonstrates techniques for analyzing radar data from actual airport operations and using it to validate, calibrate, and extend analyzes of the FAST benefits mechanisms. The emphasis is upon robust statistical measures that can be produced through automated analysis of radar data, thus enabling large amounts of data to be analyzed.
Summary
The air transportation system faces a challenge in accommodating growing air traffic despite an inability to build new runways at most major airports. One approach to alleviating congestion is to find ways of using each available runway to the maximum extent possible without violating safety standards. Some decision support tools...
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