Publications

Reducing thunderstorm-related air traffic delays in congested airspace has become a major objective of the FAA, especially given the recent growth in convective delays. In 2000 and 2001, the key new initiative for reducing these convective weather delays was "strategic" traffic flow management (TFM). Users were given 2-, 4-, and 6-hour collaborative convective weather forecasts, and collaborative traffic routing plans were established via telecons attended by Air Traffic Control (ATC) and airline traffic managers. This "strategic" approach led to difficulties during a large fraction of the weather events because it was not possible to generate forecasts of convective weather at time horizons between 2 and 6 hours that were accurate enough to assess impacts on routes and capacity, and thereby accomplish effective TFM. During convective weather events, traffic managers tend to focus on tactical TFM [Huberdeau, 2004], yet they had relatively inaccurate current weather information and tactical forecasts. The Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) demonstration began in 2001. The objectives of the demonstration are to provide improved tactical air traffic management (ATM) decision support, via improved real time 3D products and accurate short-term convective weather forecasts, and to determine if this support is an operationally useful complement to "strategic" TFM. The current focus of the CIWS initiative is the highly congested airspace containing the Great Lakes and Northeast corridors, since that region offers the greatest potential for delay reduction benefits. In this paper, we describe the current status of CIWS, including initial operational results of Air Traffic Control (ATC) and airline use of the CIWS weather products. We begin with some CIWS background, describing the motivation for the program, the role of CIWS products in the overall convective weather planning process, and the functional domains in which CIWS products can provide operationally significant benefits. We then review the current CIWS capabilities, spatial coverage, sensors used, products, operational users, and integration with ATM systems. Next the detailed CIWS operational benefits study carried out in 2003 is summarized. Finally, we discuss the FAA plans for CIWS and near term enhancements to the system.

In this paper, we summarize contemporary approaches to quantifying convective weather delay reduction benefits. We outline a program to develop a significantly improved capability that can be used to assess benefits of specific systems. This program may potentially accomplish weather impact normalization for studies of National Airspace System (NAS) performance in handling convective weather. Benefits quantification and NAS performance assessment have become very important topics for the aviation weather community. In an era of significant federal government and airline budget austerity for civil aviation investments, it is essential to quantitatively demonstrate delay reduction benefits of improved weather decision support systems. Major FAA initiatives stress the importance of quantitative system performance metrics that are related to aviation weather. For example, the new FAA Air Traffic Organization (ATO) and the FAA Flight Plan 2004-08 both have quantitative performance metrics that are closely related to reducing convective weather delays. The Flight Plan metrics include: "Improving the percentage of all flights arriving within 15 minutes of schedule at the 35 OEP airports by 7%, as measured from the FY2000-02 baseline, through FY08," and "Maintaining average en route travel times among the eight major metropolitan areas." The ATO metrics include the percentage of on time gate arrivals and the fraction of departures that are delayed greater than 40 minutes. However, these metrics currently do not account for the differences in convective weather severity and changes in the NAS. The dramatic increase in convective season delays in 2004 (Figure 1) due to a combination of severe weather, increases in overall demand, and specific airport issues has demonstrated that one needs to consider these other factors. Approaches to delay reduction quantification that were viewed as successful and valid several years ago are no longer considered to be adequate by either by the FAA investment analysis branch or by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The paper proceeds as follows. We first discuss at some length the mechanisms by which convective weather delay occurs in the NAS and highlight challenges in delay reduction assessment. We consider this to be very important since one needs to understand how the system operates if one is to design an effective, accurate performance assessment system. We then consider benefits quantification based on feedback from experienced users of a system. Feedback on "average" benefits from a system at the end of a test period was used to generate delay reduction estimates for the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) and the Weather and Radar Processor (WARP). This end-of-season interview approach was not viable in highly congested en route airspace. Hence, a new approach was developed for Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) benefits assessment that uses real time observations of product usage during convective weather events coupled with in depth analysis of specific cases. Next, we discuss the problems that arise when one attempts to quantify delay reduction benefits by comparing flight delays before and after the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) system was deployed at Atlanta Hartsfield International Airport (ATL). This seemingly simple approach has proven very difficult in practice because the convective weather events in the different time periods are virtually never identical and because other aspects of the NAS may also have changed (e.g., user demand, fleet mix, and other systems that impact convective weather delays). It has become clear that one needs a quantitative model for the NAS that would permit adjustment of measured delay data to account at least for the differences in convective weather and changes in user demand (i.e., flight scheduling). The paper concludes with recommendations for measuring near term benefits of various classes of convective weather decision support systems.

Major airlines and FAA Traffic Flow Managers alike would prefer to plan their flight routes around convective weather and thereby avoid the tactical maneuvering that results when unforecasted thunderstorms occur. Strategic planning takes place daily and 2-6 hr forecasts are utilized, but these early plans remain unaltered in only the most predictable of convective weather scenarios. More typically, the ATC System Command Center and the Air Route Traffic Control Centers together with airline dispatchers will help flights to utilize jet routes that remain available within regions of convection, or facilitate major reroutes around convection, according to the available "playbook" routes. For this tactical routing in the presence of convective weather to work, both a precise and timely shared picture of current weather is required as well as an accurate, reliable short term (0-2 hr) forecast. This is crucial to containing the system-wide and airport-specific delays that are so prevalent in the summer months (Figure 1), especially as traffic demands approach full capacity at the pacing airports. This paper describes the Tactical 0-2 hr Convective Weather Forecast (CWF) algorithm developed by the MIT Lincoln Laboratory for the FAA, principally sponsored by the Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP). This CWF technology is currently being utilized in both the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS; Wolfson et al., 2004) and the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS; Evans et al., 2004) proof-of-concept demonstrations. Some of this technology is also being utilized in the National Convective Weather Forecast from the Aviation Weather Center (Megenhardt, 2004), the NCAR Autonowcaster (Saxen et al., 2004), and in various private-vendor forecast systems.

Wake vortices are a by-product of lift generated by aircraft. The vortices from the wings and other lift surfaces such as flaps spin off and trail behind an aircraft (see Figure 1). These vortices can be a hazard to other aircraft, especially lighter aircraft that are following at low altitude. For this reason, numerous air traffic control standards require increased aircraft separation when wake vortex avoidance is a concern. These separation standards provide the required safety: there has never been a fatal accident in the U.S. due to wake vortices when wake vortex separations were provided by air traffic controllers. Wake vortex behavior is strongly dependent on atmospheric conditions, giving rise to the possibility that wake behavior can be predicted with enough precision to allow reduced use of wake vortex avoidance separations. Because vortices can not be seen, and their location and strength are not currently known or predicted, separation standards and air traffic procedures are designed to account for the worst case wake behavior. Because of this, the imposed aircraft separations are larger than required much of the time, reducing terminal capacity and causing increased traffic delay. If procedures or technologies can be developed to reduce the use of wake avoidance separations, terminal area delay reduction may be achieved. A prototype wind dependent wake separation system is operating in Frankfurt, Germany for arrivals into closely spaced parallel runways. The system uses wind prediction at the surface to determine when separation for wake vortex avoidance must be used and when the extra separation does not need to be used [Konopka, 2001][Frech, et al., 2002]. This led the FAA to ask the question: does the wind prediction algorithm used in Frankfurt, or perhaps another algorithm, have sufficient performance to consider it for possible use in the US for a closely spaced parallel runway departure system? This paper reports on a research effort to answer that question. This is part of a larger FAA and NASA research effort [Lang et al., 2003].

The Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) seeks to improve safety and reduce delay by providing accurate, automated, rapidly updated information on storm locations and echo tops along with two-hour high-resolution animated growth and decay convective storm forecasts. An operational benefits assessment was conducted using on-site observations of CIWS usage at major en route control centers in the Northeast and Great Lakes corridors and the Air Traffic Control Systems Command Center (ATCSCC) during six multi-day periods in 2003. (Not complete).

The Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) seeks to improve safety and reduce delay by providing accurate, automated, rapidly updated information on storm locations and echo tops along with two-hour high-resolution animated growth and decay convective storm forecasts. An operational benefits assessment was conducted using on-site observations of CIWS usage at major en route control centers in the Northeast and Great Lakes corridors and the Air Traffic Control Systems Command Center (ATCSCC) during six multi-day periods in 2003. This first phase of the benefit assessment characterizes major safety and delay reduction benefits and quantifies the delay reduction benefits for two key Traffic Flow Management (TFM) user benefits: "keeping air routes open longer/reopening closed routes soon" and "proactive, efficient reroutes of traffic around storm cells." The overall CIWS delay reduction for these two benefits is 40,000 to 69,000 hours annually with an equivalent monetary value ot $127M to $26M annually. Convective weather delays at most of the major airports in the test domain, normalized by thunderstorm frequency, decreased after new CIWS echo tops and forecast products were introduced. Recommendations are made for near-term, low-cost improvements to the CIWS demonstration system to further increase the operational benefits.

Many of the recent conflicts where the United States (US) military forces have been deployed are regions that contain complex terrain (i.e. Korea, Kosovo, Afghanistan, and northern Iraq). Accurate weather forecasts are critical to the success of operations in these regions and are typically supplied by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models like the US Navy NOGAPS, CAOMPS, and US Airforce MM5. Unfortunately the weather observations required to generate accurate initial conditions needed by these models are often not available. In these cases it is desirable to deploy additional weather sensors. The question then becomes: Where should the military planners deploy their sensor resources? This study demonstrates that knowledge of just the terrain within the model domain may be a useful factor for military planners to consider. For NWP, model forecast errors in mountainous areas are typically thought to be due to poorly resolved terrain, or model physics not suited for use in a complex terrain environment. Recent advances in computational technology are making it possible to run these models at resolutions where many of the significant terrain features are now being well resolved. While terrain can be accurately specified, often the gradients in wind, temperature, and moisture fields associated with the higher resolution terrain are not. As a result, initial conditions in complex terrain environments are not be adequately specified. Since not all initial condition errors contribute significantly to model forecast error, knowledge of terrain induced NWP model forecast sensitivity may be important when developing and deploying a weather sensor network to support a regional scale NWP model. The terrain induced model sensitivity can provide an indication of which variables in the initial conditions have a significant influence on the forecast and where initial conditions need to be most accurate to minimize model forecast error. A sensor network can then be designed to minimize these errors by deploying critical sensors in sensitive locations, thereby reducing relevant initial condition error without the costly deployment of a high-density sensor network. This is similar to the targeted observation technique first suggested by Emanuel et al. (1995), except that in this example the targeted observations would be designed to reduce initial condition error associated with poorly resolved atmospheric features created by the terrain. This paper is organized as follows. Section 2 contains a brief description of the data collection effort designed to support this study. The experimental design and the specifics of the case used in this study are described in section 3. The analysis and results from both the forward and adjoint simulations are presented in section 4. Section 5 contains a summary of the results, and a brief discussion of their implications.

The Dallas / Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) is one of the four demonstration system sites for the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS). One of the primary benefits of the ITWS is a suite of algorithms that utilize data from the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) to generate wind shear alerts. DFW also benefits from a Network Expansion of the Low-Level Wind Shear Advisory System (LLWAS-NE). The LLWAS-NE generated alerts are integrated with the radar-based alerts in ITWS to provide Air Traffic Control (ATC) with a comprehensive set of alert information. This study examines the integrated DFW wind shear alerts with emphasis on circumstances in which the detection performance of the TDWR-based wind shear algorithms was poor. Specific detection problems occur in the following situations: when wind shear events over the airport are aligned along a radial to the TDWR, during "non-traditional" wind shear events, when severe signal attenuation occurs during heavy precipitation over the TDWR radar site, and because of excessive TDWR clutter-residue editing over the airport. In all of the cases examined, the LLWAS-NE issued alerts to ATC that would have otherwise gone unreported.

The Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) radar data acquisition (RDA) subsystem is being replaced as part of a broader FAA program to improve the supportability of the system. An engineering prototype RDA is under development that will provide a modern, open-systems hardware platform and standards-compliant software. The new platform also provides an opportunity to insert algorithms to improve the quality of existing base data products, as well as support future enhancements to the aviation weather services provided by TDWR. There are several outstanding data quality issues with the TDWR. In this paper, we focus on mitigation schemes for the range-velocity ambiguity problem that is especially severe for C-band weather radars such as the TDWR.

Reducing congested airspace delays due to thunderstorms has become a major objective of the FAA due to the recent growth in convective delays. In 2000 and 2001 the key new initiative for reducing these convective weather delays was "strategic" traffic flow management (TFM) at time scales between 2 and 6 hours in advance using collaborative weather forecasts and routing strategy development. This "strategic" approach experienced difficulties in a large fraction of the weather events because it was not possible to forecast convective storm impacts on routes and capacities accurately enough to accomplish effective traffic flow management. Hence, we proposed in 2001 that there needed to be much greater emphasis on tactical air traffic management at time scales where it would be possible to generate much more accurate convective weather forecasts. In this paper, we describe initial operational results in the very highly congested Great Lakes and Northeast Corridors using weather products from the ongoing Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) concept exploration. Key new capabilities provided by this system include very high update rates (to support tactical air traffic control), much improved echo-tops information, and fully automatic 2-hour convective forecasts using the latest "scale separation" storm tracking technologies. Displays were provided at major terminal areas, en route centers in the corridors, and the FAA Command Center. Substantial reduction in delays has been achieved mostly through weather product usage at the shorter time scales. Quantifying the achieved benefits for this class of products have raised major questions about the conceptual framework for traffic flow management in these congested corridors that must be addressed in the development of air traffic management systems to utilize the weather products.