Publications
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Air traffic management decision support during convective weather
June 1, 2007
Journal Article
Published in:
Lincoln Laboratory Journal, Vol. 16, No. 2, June 2007, pp. 263-276.
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Summary
Flight delays caused by thunderstorms are a significant and growing problem for airlines and the flying public. Thunderstorms disrupt the structured, preplanned flight routing and control process that is used to handle dense air traffic streams in congested airspace. Today's coping strategies are developed by traffic flow management (TFM) specialists who interpret weather measurements and forecasts to develop delay and rerouting strategies. The effectiveness of these strategies is limited by the lack of quantitative models for the capacity impacts of thunderstorms, and by the difficulty of developing and executing timely response strategies during rapidly changing convective weather. In this article, we describe initial work to develop more effective response strategies. We first review insights gained during operational testing of a simple but highly effective Route Availability Planning Tool that can significantly reduce convective-weather induced departure delays at congested airports. We then discuss work to develop core technical capabilities and applications that address broader TFM problems, including en route congestion. Objective models for airspace capacity reductions caused by thunderstorms are discussed, as is an associated scheduling algorithm that exploits the capacity estimates to develop broad-area TFM strategies that minimize delay. We conclude by discussing candidate real-time applications and airspace system performance analysis that is enabled by our weather-capacity models and optimal scheduling algorithm.
Summary
Flight delays caused by thunderstorms are a significant and growing problem for airlines and the flying public. Thunderstorms disrupt the structured, preplanned flight routing and control process that is used to handle dense air traffic streams in congested airspace. Today's coping strategies are developed by traffic flow management (TFM) specialists...
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Multifunction phased array radar: technical synopsis, cost implications, and operational capabilities
January 14, 2007
Conference Paper
Published in:
87th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting, 14-18 January 2007.
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Current U.S. weather and aircraft surveillance radar networks vary in age from 10 to more than 40 years. Ongoing sustainment and upgrade programs can keep these operating in the near to mid term, but the responsible agencies (FAA, NWS and DoD/DHS) recognize that large-scale replacement activities must begin during the next decade. In addition, these agencies are re-evaluating their operational requirements for radar surveillance. FAA has announced that next generation air traffic control (ATC) will be based on Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast (ADS-B) (Scardina, 2002) rather than current primary and secondary radars. ADS-B, however, requires verification and back-up services which could be provided by retaining or replacing primary ATC radars.
Summary
Current U.S. weather and aircraft surveillance radar networks vary in age from 10 to more than 40 years. Ongoing sustainment and upgrade programs can keep these operating in the near to mid term, but the responsible agencies (FAA, NWS and DoD/DHS) recognize that large-scale replacement activities must begin during the...
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Advances in operational weather radar technology
June 1, 2006
Journal Article
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Lincoln Laboratory Journal, Vol. 16, No. 1, June 2006, pp. 9-30.
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The U.S. aviation system makes extensive use of national operational Doppler weather radar networks. These are critical for the detection and forecasting of thunderstorms and other hazardous weather phenomena, and they provide dense, continuously updated measurements of precipitation and wind fields as inputs to high-resolution numerical weather prediction models. This article describes recent Lincoln Laboratory activities that significantly enhance the operational effectiveness of the nation's Doppler weather radar networks. An open radar controller and digital signal processor has been developed for the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), which provides safety-critical low-altitude wind-shear warnings at large airports. This processor utilizes a small computer cluster architecture and standards-based software to realize high throughput and expansion capability. Innovative signal processing algorithms enabled by the new processor significantly improve the quality of the precipitation and wind measurements provided by TDWR. In a parallel effort, the Laboratory is working with engineers in the National Weather Service to augment the national NEXRAD Doppler weather radar network's algorithm suite. Laboratory staff develop and test enhancements directed at the aviation weather problem. Then they provide plug-and-play software to the NEXRAD second-level engineering support organization. This effort has substantially improved the operational value of NEXRAD data for the aviation system. Finally, we discuss nascent efforts to define a future multifunction radar network using an active-array architecture, which could realize the capabilities of today's multiple weather and air traffic control radar networks.
Summary
The U.S. aviation system makes extensive use of national operational Doppler weather radar networks. These are critical for the detection and forecasting of thunderstorms and other hazardous weather phenomena, and they provide dense, continuously updated measurements of precipitation and wind fields as inputs to high-resolution numerical weather prediction models. This...
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Advanced aviation weather forecasts
June 1, 2006
Journal Article
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Lincoln Laboratory Journal, Vol. 16, No. 1, June 2006, pp. 31-58.
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The U.S. air transportation system faces a continuously growing gap between the demand for air transportation and the capacity to meet that demand. Two key obstacles to bridging this gap are traffic delays due to en route severe-weather conditions and airport weather conditions. Lincoln Laboratory has been addressing these traffic delays and related safety problems under the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Aviation Weather Research Program. Our research efforts involve real-time prototype forecast systems that provide immediate benefits to the FAA by allowing traffic managers to safely reduce delay. The prototypes also show the way toward bringing innovative applied meteorological research to future FAA operational capabilities. This article describes the recent major accomplishments of the Convective Weather and the Terminal Ceiling and Visibility Product Development Teams, both of which are led by scientists at Lincoln Laboratory.
Summary
The U.S. air transportation system faces a continuously growing gap between the demand for air transportation and the capacity to meet that demand. Two key obstacles to bridging this gap are traffic delays due to en route severe-weather conditions and airport weather conditions. Lincoln Laboratory has been addressing these traffic...
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Corridor Integrated Weather System
June 1, 2006
Journal Article
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Lincoln Laboratory Journal, Vol. 16, No. 1, June 2006, pp. 59-80.
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Flight delays are now a major problem in the U.S. National Airspace System. A significant fraction of these delays are caused by reductions in en route capacity due to severe convective weather. The Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) is a fully automated weather analysis and forecasting system designed to support the development and execution of convective weather impact mitigation plans for congested en route airspace. The CIWS combines data from dozens of weather radars with satellite data, surface observations, and numerical weather models to dramatically improve the accuracy and timeliness of the storm severity information and to provide state-of-the-art, accurate, automated, high-resolution, animated three-dimensional forecasts of storms (including explicit detection of storm growth and decay). Real-time observations of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) decision making process during convective weather at Air Route Traffic Control Centers in the Midwest and Northeast have shown that the CIWS enables the FAA users to achieve more efficient tactical use of the airspace, reduce traffic manager workload, and significantly reduce delays. A real-time data-fusion architecture to assist in national deployment of CIWS is under development, and the CIWS products are being used in integrated air traffic management decision support systems.
Summary
Flight delays are now a major problem in the U.S. National Airspace System. A significant fraction of these delays are caused by reductions in en route capacity due to severe convective weather. The Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) is a fully automated weather analysis and forecasting system designed to support...
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Integrating advanced weather forecast technologies into air traffic management decision support
June 1, 2006
Journal Article
Published in:
Lincoln Laboratory Journal, Vol. 16, No. 1, June 2006, pp. 81-96.
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Explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with the National Airspace System (NAS) structure is needed to improve the development and execution of operationally effective weather impact mitigation plans and has become increasingly important due to NAS congestion and associated increases in delay. This article considers several contemporary weather-air traffic management (ATM) integration applications: the use of probabilistic forecasts of visibility at San Francisco, the Route Availability Planning Tool to facilitate departures from the New York airports during thunderstorms, the estimation of en route capacity in convective weather, and the application of mixed-integer optimization techniques to air traffic management when the en route and terminal capacities are varying with time because of convective weather impacts. Our operational experience at San Francisco and New York coupled with very promising initial results of traffic flow optimizations suggests that weather-ATM integrated systems warrant significant research and development investment. However, they will need to be refined through rapid prototyping at facilities with supportive operational users.
Summary
Explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with the National Airspace System (NAS) structure is needed to improve the development and execution of operationally effective weather impact mitigation plans and has become increasingly important due to NAS congestion and associated increases in delay. This article considers several contemporary weather-air traffic management...
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An exploratory study of modeling enroute pilot convective storm flight deviation behavior
February 2, 2006
Conference Paper
Published in:
12th Conf. on Aviation Range and Aerospace Meteorology, 2 February 2006.
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The optimization of traffic flows in highly congested airspace with rapidly varying convective weather is an extremely complex problem. Aviation weather systems such as the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) provide weather products and forecasts that aid en route traffic managers in making tactical routing decisions in convective weather, but traffic managers need automated decision support systems that integrate flight information, trajectory models and convective weather products to assist in developing and executing convective weather mitigation plans. A key element of an integrated ATM/wx decision support system is the ability to predict automatically when pilots in en route airspace will choose to deviate around convective weather and how far they will deviate from their planned path. The FAA Aeronautical Information Manual suggests that pilots avoid thunderstorms characterized by intense radar echo in en route airspace by at least 20 nautical miles (40 km). However, a recent study (Rhoda, et. al., 2002) of pilot behavior in both terminal and en route airspace near Memphis, TN suggested that pilots fly over high reflectivity cells in en route airspace and penetrate lower cells whose reflectivity is less than VIP level 3. Recent operational experience with CIWS supports the Rhoda findings (Robinson, et. al., 2004). This study presents initial results of research to develop a quantitative model that would predict when a pilot will deviate around convective weather in en route airspace. It also presents statistics that characterize hazard avoidance distances and weather penetrations. The results are based on the analysis of more than 800 flight trajectories through two Air Traffic Control (ATC) en route super-sectors (geographical regions that include several adjacent ATC en route sectors) on five days in the summer of 2003. One supersector from the Indianapolis Air Route Traffic Control Center (ZID ARTCC) encompassed southern Indiana, southwestern Ohio and northern Kentucky (ZID); the other, located in the Cleveland ARTCC (ZOB), included northern Ohio, along the southern shore of Lake Erie (ZOB). The weather encountered along the flight trajectories was characterized by the CIWS high-resolution precipitation (VIL) and radar echo tops mosaic (Klingle-Wilson and Evans, 2005) and NLDN lightning products. Flight trajectories were taken from the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS).
Summary
The optimization of traffic flows in highly congested airspace with rapidly varying convective weather is an extremely complex problem. Aviation weather systems such as the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) provide weather products and forecasts that aid en route traffic managers in making tactical routing decisions in convective weather, but...
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A "demand pull" approach to short term forecast development and testing
January 30, 2006
Conference Paper
Published in:
86th AMS Annual Mtg., 1st Symp. on Policy Research, January 2006.
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We discuss two specific short term aviation weather forecasts - convection and ceiling - to illustrate the issues that arise in thinking about the overall decision support system, key users, and training needed to generate benefits. We also consider reducing weather-related fatal accidents. Second, what is the preexisting "baseline" of aviation forecasts/decision processes that already exists to address the user needs? In most cases, there are already various weather information sources that can be viewed as providing a short term forecast (e.g., a Center Weather Service Unit (CWSU) meteorologist, persistence, or animation loops of the past weather). How well do we understand how the "baseline" forecast and the associated user decision support system operate? How will the new forecast and its decision support compare? What are the training implications if the new forecast is rather different than the "baseline"? Third, how will we measure the change in system performance? For example, if the new forecast claims to help reduce delays and/or accidents, how will one address differences in the weather between the "before" and "after" time periods? How will one determine whether the new forecast is in fact the key factor, if there was a change? The paper concludes with some suggestions for development and testing of new aviation forecasts to improve safety and reduce delays.
Summary
We discuss two specific short term aviation weather forecasts - convection and ceiling - to illustrate the issues that arise in thinking about the overall decision support system, key users, and training needed to generate benefits. We also consider reducing weather-related fatal accidents. Second, what is the preexisting "baseline" of...
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Upgrade and technology transfer of the San Francisco Marine Stratus Forecast system to the National Weather Service
January 30, 2006
Conference Paper
Published in:
86th AMS Annual Mtg., 1st Symp. on Policy Research, January 2006.
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The local airspace surrounding the San Francisco International Airport (SFO) is prone to regular occurrences of low ceiling conditions from May through October due to the intrusion of marine stratus along the Pacific coast. The low cloud conditions prohibit dual parallel landings of aircraft to the airport's closely spaced parallel runways, thus effectively reducing the arrival capacity by a factor of two. The behavior of marine stratus evolves on a daily cycle, filling the San Francisco Bay region overnight, and dissipating during the morning. Often the low ceiling conditions persist throughout the morning hours and interfere with the high rate of air traffic scheduled into SFO from mid-morning to early afternoon. The result is a substantial number of delayed flights into the airport and a negative impact on the National Air Space (NAS). Air traffic managers face a continual challenge of anticipating available operating capacity so that the demand of incoming planes can be metered to match the availability of arrival slots.
Summary
The local airspace surrounding the San Francisco International Airport (SFO) is prone to regular occurrences of low ceiling conditions from May through October due to the intrusion of marine stratus along the Pacific coast. The low cloud conditions prohibit dual parallel landings of aircraft to the airport's closely spaced parallel...
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A characterization of NWP ceiling and visibility forecasts for the terminal airspace
January 29, 2006
Conference Paper
Published in:
86th AMS Annual Meeting, 1st Symp. on Policy Research, 2006.
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The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is sponsoring a Terminal Ceiling and Visibility (C&V) initiative to provide automated C&V guidance to the air traffic managers for both tactical (0-2 hour) and strategic (3-12 hour) decision making. To meet these requirements, particularly in the strategic time frame, it will most likely be necessary for the C&V system to incorporate guidance from an explicit numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. If NWP forecasts are found to be suitable for this application, they will be used as the backbone of the terminal C&V forecast system. More details on the terminal area C&V forecast product development for the FAA can be found in Allan et al. (2004). Before these NWP forecast products can be used, it is necessary to first characterize their accuracy relative to operational air traffic control (ATC) requirements. This makes it possible to exploit observed strengths, avoid weaknesses, and facilitate a better utilization of NWP forecast products. This study provides an assessment tailored specifically to address the terminal C&V application. Consequently, the results represent forecast performance for relatively small geographic locations that for practical purposes can be considered point forecasts. It is our intention to answer four questions with this preliminary analysis: 1. How accurate are the NWP forecasts relative to the observational truth and a human generated forecast? 2. For the terminals of interest to this study (i.e. New York City Airports), are there any advantages to utilizing a non-hydrostatic mesoscale model run at horizontal resolutions of 3 km or less? 3. Do the NWP models exhibit forecast skill for non-traditional forecast metrics such as trends in C&V parameters and timings of threshold crossings associated with the onset and clearing of low ceiling and visibility conditions? 4. Are there obvious situations/conditions during which the NWP forecasts have more/less skill? In addition to a report on the NWP terminal ceiling and visibility forecast accuracy, we provide preliminary recommendations on the direction we feel this line of research should pursue, and where we see opportunities to utilize NWP forecasts in an automated terminal C&V decision guidance system. An ancillary goal of this study is to assemble the analysis software infrastructure required to quantitatively evaluate numerical forecast accuracy. We envision using these tools to develop and test modifications to the translation algorithms and techniques that will be necessary to integrate the NWP forecasts into the C&V guidance system. They will be instrumental in reducing the time required to make engineering turns during the upcoming development and implementation stages of this research.
Summary
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is sponsoring a Terminal Ceiling and Visibility (C&V) initiative to provide automated C&V guidance to the air traffic managers for both tactical (0-2 hour) and strategic (3-12 hour) decision making. To meet these requirements, particularly in the strategic time frame, it will most likely be...
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